Who's up for the Mercury?

The only criterion is artistic merit, (or personal taste if you're being cynical), which usually means there is a frustrating lack of logic to the selection. However, it also means that the Prize retains a credibility that the sales-focused Brits or MOBOs lack. Like the Booker, its frequent concentration on smaller artists can be life-changing for those previously overlooked by the mainstream, and its overall influence is overwhelmingly positive (unless you're past winners and subsequent flops Ms Dynamite, Talvin Singh or Roni Size).

Gallery: See the 12 shortlisted albums here

This year's selection is less po-faced than usual, featuring albums by Jamie T, Klaxons and New Young Pony Club that are all great fun. It also reflects the public's unquenchable thirst for new music, featuring nine debuts - the highest total ever. Such is the unpredictablility of the Mercury that anyone could win, except for the jazz one, as usual. Below is my form guide, indicating the best bets and the way the bookies are likely to be swinging.

HOT FAVOURITES
KLAXONS: Myths of the Near Future (Polydor)
The Mercury judges love to reward new musical genres, usually when they've already gone out of fashion - hence their overlong fascination with trip hop, drum and bass and the Asian Underground, and this nod for the debut from "nu-rave" pioneers Klaxons. However, impressive sales figures, as well as a lively sonic inventiveness that suggests there is even better to come from this day-glo trio, make them strong contenders.

AMY WINEHOUSE: Back to Black (Universal Island)
Amy could not be ignored this year, having dominated the charts while still retaining that crucial artistic credibility with a modern soul album that drips class. Recent Mercury victories for Arctic Monkeys and Franz Ferdinand prove that the judges are no longer averse to giving the Prize to the biggest sellers, while ongoing press obsession with the wayward singer will keep the Mercury's profile high this year. Expect numerous "hilarious" tabloid articles about what she could buy if she spent the entire £20,000 cheque in Oddbins.

EVERY CHANCE
ARCTIC MONKEYS: Favourite Worst Nightmare (Domino)
It's not unusual to be nominated twice, but two years in succession is unheard of. To win twice running would be ridiculous, but if anyone can pull it off, it's these record-breaking Sheffield tykes. Their second album expands their sound to feature both harder rockers and softer ballads, while maintaining the cutting lyrics and head-turning rhythmic gear changes that made their sound so addictive in the first place. They don't need to win this time, but don't put it past them.

DIZZEE RASCAL: Maths and English (XL)
The sound of 2003's victor is not as shockingly alien now as it was four years ago, so Dylan Mills is less likely than Arctic Monkeys to take the Prize a second time. He's here as the annual representative of grime and UK hip hop, though the fact that no one new has managed to make the shortlist instead suggests that the field is not as healthy as it could be. Admittedly, his uncompromising sound and manic rapping style is hard to touch.

JAMIE T: Panic Prevention (Virgin)
Filling the lairy poet slot often occupied by the Streets is Wimbledon youngster Jamie Treays, whose mangled vowels and bass-heavy sound make him an acquired taste, but also one of the most distinctive artists on the shortlist. A singer-songwriter with more in common with hip hop and reggae acts than James Blunt, he speaks, raps and sings over lively beats, guitars and electronic flickers. A worthy winner, he's well worth a tenner in William Hill.

THE VIEW: Hats Off to the Buskers (1965)
The biggest breakthrough guitar band of the year, this teenage Dundee quartet's debut album was a number one in February. A likeable collection of scruffy rock and roll, it owes a lot to the Libertines and does nothing new, but it has a youthful spirit that is lacking in some of the more creative efforts on the shortlist. However, wins for indie rock bands twice in the past three years mean it's probably time for something different.

DARK HORSES
BAT FOR LASHES: Fur and Gold (Echo)
This is exactly the type of album that the Mercury should be championing. Brighton resident Natasha Khan's debut album as Bat For Lashes has not sold spectacularly to date, but has the potential to be adored by thousands who have not yet heard of her. She makes a hypnotic blend of minimal piano, harpsichord and tribal rhythms, topped with her soft, spooky voice. This nomination will hopefully be all the push she needs to succeed.

NEW YOUNG PONY CLUB: Fantastic Playroom (Modular)
Along with Klaxons, this is the other band on the shortlist that could just about be pegged as nu-rave, though in reality this London quintet of three girls and two boys simply makes vibrant, catchy electropop. Of the 12, you're most likely to put this one on at a party, which is reason enough to welcome it onto a list that can often feel full of albums you ought to play rather than albums you'd really want to play.

THE YOUNG KNIVES: Voices of Animals and Men (Transgressive)
Sharing much in common with the modernised post-punk sound of past winners Franz Ferdinand, this trio from Ashby-de-la-Zouch are the least well known of the indie bands on the shortlist. Their habit of dressing like pensioners and the fact that their bassist goes by the name of House of Lords should make them stand out, but their brand of guitar rock may not be remarkable enough to make them winners.

PIGS MIGHT FLY
BASQUIAT STRINGS WITH SEB ROCHFORD: Basquiat Strings (F-Ire)
It's the jazz one! Big-haired drummer Seb Rochford has been here before, nominated as part of Polar Bear in 2005. This time he's beating the skins with a classically-trained string quintet who, unusually, specialise in improvisation. As always with the jazz nominee, it's probably the most inventive album on the shortlist, but unlikely to send ordinary music fans running to the record shops.

MAPS: We Can Create (Mute)
Northampton bedroom composer James Chapman deserves more attention for the whispery electronica he creates as Maps - it's a gorgeous sound that will never work well on the radio but sounds impossibly magical at three in the morning. Overall it's probably too meek to win the big cheque.

FIONN REGAN: The End of History (Bella Union)
The simplest sound on the shortlist could also be the most beautiful. Irishman Regan sings yearningly over acoustic guitar and little else, and has already won fans supporting the vaguely similar Damien Rice on tour. His debut is a lovely, timeless record, but loses marks for lacking the musical invention that the Mercury judges usually seek in a winner.

The winner will be announced on 4 September.