'$200 oil' pundit lowers sights

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Respected Wall Street forecaster Arjun Murti appeared to invite ridicule in May as he chased up the soaring oil price and made his prediction amid cat-calls from rival analysts, who called him "anti-oil".

The price of crude peaked within six weeks of Murti's call at $147 a barrel and has since crashed 40%, trading today at around $84. Now Murti, whose original May prediction was of oil going to $200 a barrel in the next two years, is saying crude will on average trade at $75 in 2009.

That is a $35-a-barrel downward revision from his last call, and $65 lower than his forecasts at the beginning of September. In a research note, Murti admitted that his team has "been behind the curve in sufficiently lowering near-term forecasts".

Murti cannot even agree with his colleagues on the Goldman commodities desk, who are calling $86 a barrel.