A tough call but no one wants to miss next boom

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The market figures are pretty good. The Shanghai composite, normally used as the benchmark index, last week reached a high for the year. At 2663, it was showing a 41% increase since January.

Of course it's still a long way off the peak of 6092 in October 2007. But that was the top of a thundering bull market.

Twelve months later, the index stood at 1706 and many punters were in serious difficulty. After two years of one-way traffic, they had thought they couldn't lose.

At least the past six months have been in the right direction. Investor sentiment has certainly improved. More importantly, the government has used the stimulus package to provide economic encouragement rather than more direct market intervention.

But economic indicators coming out at the moment are as hard to read as entrails.

Last week's crop was typical. Bad news on slowing growth in industrial production and a sixth straight month of decline in exports.

Against that, retail sales growth was better than expected and fixed asset investment was up massively on the back of government expenditure.

Where does that leave the punter? Individual investors, chartists to the core, are beginning to see momentum. Fund managers, while more conscious of economic fundamentals, are desperately watching their peers; relative performance pays the bonus. And there's a lot of liquidity looking for a home.

So tip the balance in favour of positive news, and the market could be off again in a flash. Nobody will want to be left out.

THE Peace Hotel, that wonderful icon of faded art deco, has been closed for two years for refurbishment. Its owner, Jinjiang Hotels, has recently given a preview of what it will look like when opened in March 2010 as a Fairmont hotel. Rather more deco than art, by the looks of it.

IN a move to expand the financial sector, the government is promoting the establishment of consumer finance companies. Restricted to lending for consumer goods, the sub-plot is clearly to stimulate consumption. Sounds just like the good old days in the United States. Lucky they're not doing property as well.