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British banks face a new mauling from mortgage defaults by US middle classes
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06 February 2009
Ranking between prime and subprime, Alt-A loans were taken out by the middle classes. As the recession deepens and more white-collar workers lose their jobs, the number of repossessions in more well-heeled areas has soared. British banks Lloyds, Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland have total Alt-A exposure of at least £12.5billion.
Credit rating agency Moody's has set alarm bells ringing by downgrading the value of Alt-A debt because it has seen an "unprecedented" number of borrowers falling behind with repayments, and losses increasing.
David Watts at London research firm CreditSights, said: "The performance of Alt-A loans is clearly deteriorating rapidly, and we believe that 2009 will see such mortgages worsen further."
Watts estimates that $600billion (£407billion) of Alt-A debt is outstanding and $150billion may need to be written off. British banks have already written down some of the losses.
Analysts had regarded Alt-A as safer than subprime because borrowers had better credit histories. But they were often encouraged to borrow more.
A Moody's report warned: "A sizeable proportion of transactions backed by these Alt-A mortgages have performed similarly to subprime mortgage securitisations.
"The loans backing 2006 and 2007 Alt-A securitisations have shown substantial increases in serious delinquencies and decreases in prepayment rates that are unprecedented for the asset class."
Sandy Chen at Panmure Gordon said: "The problem with Alt-A has been buried by all the other bad news we've had in the last few months."
Lloyds is the most exposed of the British banks with more than £7billion of Alt-A. Its HBOS subsidiary has £6.75billion while the Lloyds TSB arm has £619million.
Barclays' latest interims say it has exposure of £3.7billion. Broker RBS Hoare Govett last week warned that Barclays' "large Alt-A portfolio is perceived to be inadequately written down".
RBS has £1.59 billion of Alt-A but HSBC and Standard Chartered are thought to have relatively little direct exposure.
British banks' problems are dwarfed by those of some of their European counterparts. ING has a €27.7billion (£24billion) portfolio of Alt-A. UBS held as much as $26.6billion, but is understood to have managed to offload much of the paper at a discount.
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