Goldman's $200-a-barrel oil pundit lowers his sights to $45 - Business - Evening Standard
       

Goldman's $200-a-barrel oil pundit lowers his sights to $45

The Goldman Sachs oil analyst who hit the headlines earlier this year with his $200 a barrel prediction has a new eye-watering figure for energy watchers - $45. That is what eminent Wall Street pundit Arjun Murti reckons a barrel of crude will cost in 2009 as demand seeps away faster than spilt petrol.

Murti, who is paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for his uncanny ability to read markets and inform clients of future trends ahead of competitors, has changed tack in the wake of the worsening US recession.

While hindsight makes Murti's $200-a-barrel call seem bafflingly gung-ho, his powers of prediction gained a aura of divination after he warned in 2005 that oil would hit $100.

Ridiculed then, Murti was hailed a soothsayer when crude did indeed surge past the $100 mark.

Then, in May, with the full horror of the credit crunch yet to be unleashed, Murti said the "possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six-24 months".

A flurry of unkind remarks from rival analysts followed. When it emerged that he had not one but two hybrid cars, he was called "anti-oil". Crude peaked at $147 a barrel in July, and has been on the slide ever since, leaving Murti's call open to increased derision.

US oil prices fell more than $2 today to $44.81 as the US car industry looked set for oblivion following the collapse of the bailout plan. Murti reckons it won't pick up until 2012 - just in time for the London Olympics.

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