In the balance: bid for Imperial the Indians don't want to win

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By August, executive hands were shaken on the deal at a cash price of 1250p a share. Since then, oil has been in freefall, to below $45 a barrel - and little has been heard from ONGC except for reports the Indians may be trying to wriggle out of the deal.

Now the Takeover Panel has intervened and, in the equivalent of dragging a reluctant bride to the altar, has told ONGC it must go through with the bid - even if the Indians' valuation of Imperial is probably at least two-thirds lower than it was four months ago.

However, there is a glimmer of hope for ONGC.

The Indians today finally and formally started the clock ticking on the offer, which needs acceptance by holders of 90% of Imperial's shares.

That means the 21-day deadline falls in the middle of the normally markets-somnolent Christmas holiday, at 1pm on 30 December.

If holders of more than 10% of the shares have not accepted, ONGC can walk away.

Imperial shares have dribbled downwards in recent weeks. With the stock now a straightforward bet on whether the 90% threshold will be breached, the shares today traded 177p higher at 1027p.