Mapping out best bets in Europe as Buffett hits a new investments trail

As the American economy stagnates, the Sage of Omaha is looking for family-run businesses in Europe he can buy or take a stake in. Given the tough outlook for Britain, it is little wonder that he was flying straight over our shores and landing in Frankfurt today.

The shrewd Buffett will have done his homework, and clearly sees the eurozone as a place he should be doing business. While Britain will be lucky to see growth of 1.5% this year, data from the European Commission's Eurostat suggests the eurozone is buzzing at about 2.2%. The strength of the euro underlines that point. Better still, as London's Centre for Economic and Business Research points out, a strong euro keeps the price of imports down inside euroland.

So which European countries look particularly well-placed to keep the credit crunch at bay and appeal to Buffett? Of the big three, France and Italy look most vulnerable while Germany stands out as relatively stable.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel can thank her countrymen's instinctive reluctance to live on credit. The culture of preferring to rent rather than buy has meant there has been no house price explosion and little exposure for consumers to the subprime crisis. Across Europe, aside from Spain, the popularity of renting has meant countries have been relatively free of the shock waves hitting the UK mortgage market.

Germany's plodding manufacturing and industrial base is proving reassuringly reliable in these rocky times. Figures from Eurostat show the German economy grew a punchy 1.5% in the last quarter, double expectations.

CEBR economist Jorg Radeke said: "One reason for Germany's robust GDP increase is growing consumer spending as the unemployment rate continues to fall, boosting consumer confidence. Additionally, trade continues to be strong, defying expectations of a slowdown in the face of the strong euro."

There have been casualties: German banks have had massive exposure to subprime investments and the final bill could top €70 billion (£55.7 billion). Credit is harder for companies to obtain, and exports are down.

Many smaller economies, notably the Netherlands, Austria and Scandinavia, also look worthy of Buffett's attention. The Netherlands' unemployment and inflation rates are among the lowest in the EU, and gross domestic product grew about 3% in 2007. In January, producer confidence in manufacturing hit its highest level since 1985, according to Statistics Netherlands.

Austria has benefited more from Europe's opening to the east than any of the other older EU members. Exposure to the subprime crisis has been minimal as most banks wisely invested in eastern Europe instead of Wall Street. As in Germany, most people rent their homes.

Scandinavia also looks rosy. Denmark is probably most exposed to toxic US financial products yet 70% of its exports are within the EU, unemployment is at a record low and business opportunities are listed as "excellent" by several ratings companies. Norway appears especially buoyant, with its large oil revenues, while Sweden has also enjoyed robust GDP growth. Accelerating house prices and increased indebtedness are a blip on the horizon.

The Finnish economy is strong, too. However, the subprime crisis will bite into exports such as mobile phones.

What about the trouble spots Buffett is likely to cold-shoulder? Along with the UK, Spain is probably the country most exposed to the housing market.

It has already been "adios, amigo" to a building boom that fuelled the Spanish economy for years. As banks tighten credit and building firms go bust, the jury is still out on whether a full-blooded crash can be averted. New-car sales are down and consumer confidence is off.

France and Italy may have fewer problems with property, but neither looks a very attractive investment prospect. Global markets were spooked earlier this year when France's largest bank, BNP Paribas, announced the suspension of three of its funds because of their exposure to US subprime mortgages. French industrial output fell four times more sharply than expected in March.

"The French economy is in the process of going from autumn to winter," said Global Equities economist Marc Touati in a bleak analysis.

Italy, the eurozone's third-largest economy, has been a slowcoach, growing much less than its partners in the last decade. The Government forecast growth of 1.5% in 2008 but that looks unlikely. Retail sales plunged in March, when new-car sales fell for a third straight month, down 19% year on year. Industrial output is also dropping.

"These figures suggest Italy's economy has started to contract," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at NTC Research, forecasting Italian GDP fell 0.1% in the first quarter.

But Buffett, in his hunt for potential investments, will find overall prospects for the eurozone look good. In the words of Radeke of the CEBR: "The European economy is holding up better than expected in a rather troublesome global context." That is not so cheering for us, on this side of the English Channel.