Greece is moving the right way but could take time - Analysis & Features - Business - Evening Standard
       

Greece is moving the right way but could take time

Ever since the last disappointment, the trick hasn't been to agree a new bailout plan for Greece, it has been to agree to one which can be made to stick.

October's accord was so light on detail, it was being unpicked by the doubting markets before the ink was dry. The deal that was thrashed out in the small hours of this morning is certainly meatier, and markets had already risen in anticipation of its coming.

Tackling Greece's debt burden could only ever happen once the country swallowed its pride.

Paying bailout money directly to its creditors, instead of trusting it to spendthrift ministers, requires a hefty slice of humble pie. Welcoming a permanent taskforce to Athens to make sure it really is tightening its belt means another large mouthful. Their role will be crucial, as long as they can make it through the rioting crowds to their desks to begin work.

Some pessimists believe Greece is not worth saving. And it's true that its debt reduction programme is well off the target set by the International Monetary Fund.

Even if its economy stops shrinking next year - a heroic assumption after some recent precipitous drops - it will require another 50 billion (£41.8 billion) injection by 2020 on top of today's 130 billlion. Does that constitute throwing even more good money after bad?

In addition, the recovery being plotted will be something of an experiment to see if economic growth can be stimulated at the same time as slashing a bloated public sector. The country could yet end up on the outside of the eurozone looking in.

For all that, there are plenty of positives to take from this deal. A dysfunctional eurozone has finally been pressed into action. Appealing to China and other emerging sovereign wealth hasn't worked. Eurozone nations have been forced to dig deeper to put their own house in order. Even the IMF, where Britain is a member, isn't contributing as much as once expected.

That said, senior bankers still have a sense of unease. The European Central Bank is pumping billions into Europe's banking system, contributing to an early springtime stock market rally, but fears remain that another bank will get into trouble soon.

This latest Greek bailout has been two years in the making. We may have to wait another two to see whether it has the desired effect.

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