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'No sector spared' is the grim warning from Caz
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24 October 2008
The collateral damage to shares caused by the banking crisis and subsequent global economic collapse has been laid bare for stock market investors by Cazenove in its latest UK strategy briefing. It makes grim reading, and shows little scope for short-term improvement.
The FTSE 100 index has fallen 41.3% in the past 10 months, having risen almost 4% last year. That highlights the kind of beating most investors' portfolios have taken. The value of the companies that make up the index is now at £966 billion, but the survey from the Queen's stockbroker also sets out the idea that there are defensive stocks able to withstand a global economic slump. It seems no sector has been spared by the fallout from the banking crisis and global economic slump.
The worst-performing sector has been the housebuilders, which have this year lost almost 70% of their collective value after the worst collapse in house prices in 20 years. Next comes the mining sector, down 58.1% since the start of the year, followed by general retailers (50.4%) and life assurers(53.6%). The banks' losses are a mere 47%.
The miners' performance makes toe-curling reading. They led the market higher until a year ago, fed by strong demand from countries such as China and India, which sent the cost of raw materials soaring. The subsequent slowdown in those economies has taken a heavy toll on the miners.
Xstrata, 96p lower at 744p, is down 74%, having gained almost 40% in 2007. Rio Tinto, 105p adrift at 2135p, has lost nearly half its value this year, having almost doubled in 2007. Kazakhmys, off 11p at 228p, is down 81%, and Lonmin, 28p cheaper at 1134p, has lost 61%. Oil companies have also taken a beating. BP, 31¾p lower at 433¼p, has fallen 28% with BG Group, 69p lighter at 705p, down 33%. The subprime crisis has left Royal Bank of Scotland, 5.8p easier at 61.2p, diving by 90%.
Among retailers, Marks & Spencer, off 10¼p at 211½p, has lost 60% of its value while J Sainsbury, 5¾p softer at 249p, is down 41%.
Meanwhile, investors were again running for cover today as any lingering hopes of a bear-market rally went up in smoke following publication of GDP figures. This showed the UK economy shrank 0.5% in the third quarter, underpinning this week's gloomy comments from Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King that we are already in recession.
The figures were far worse than the most pessimistic City forecast, and prompted an immediate sell-off in the pound which, at one stage, slumped 10 cents to $1.51, its biggest one-day loss for 37 years, and its lowest since June 2002.
Shares were quick to follow, adding to the misery of investors, who have given up trying to call the bottom of the market. The FTSE 100 index slumped nearly 9%, touching a low of 3715.24, almost matching the meltdown at the time of the banking bailout earlier this month. The index later reduced its fall to 248.17 at 3839.66. It has now lost 2891 points, or almost 43% of its value, since the subprime meltdown hit the radar a year ago. That is a loss of £674 billion in the value of leading companies. The selling spilled over into New York, where the Dow slumped almost 500 points within minutes of the start of trading. It later reduced the deficit to 288.88 at 8402.37.
Banks took a battering. HSBC fell 119p to 686p while Standard Chartered lost 150p at 750p, both hit by the worsening situation among emerging economies. Some of the old favourites also took a bath and are trading well below the prices of rights issues linked to the Government's proposed £37 billion bailout. HBOS was off 6p at 66.8p, against its rescue rights price of 113.6p.
The dramatic drop in stock market turnover looks set to continue, which will be bad news for the London Stock Exchange, 44½p cheaper at a four-year low of 480p.
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