Recession is looming, admits IMF

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In a hugely pessimistic internal document, the IMF cuts its forecast for global economic growth in 2008 from the 4.1% it predicted in January to just 3.7%.

"The financial shock that originated in the US subprime mortgage market in August 2007 has spread quickly, and in unanticipated ways, to inflict extensive damage on markets and institutions at the core of the financial system," the report says. "The global expansion is losing momentum in the face of what has become the largest financial crisis in the US since the Great Depression."

The paper, obtained by Bloomberg News at an event for Asian ministers and central bankers in Vietnam, said there was a 25% chance global growth would drop to 3% or less this year and next - a pace the IMF described as equivalent to a global recession.