Shopkeepers' woes will get worse before they improve

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They are all in the tier of High Street chains that have been underperforming because they haven't sold enough for one reason or another. Likewise, it's possible to predict the next names to fall.

That said, it's also clear that something profound is occurring - that this is a shake-out versus a worsening backdrop of depressed consumer spending and deepening economic uncertainty.

The weakest are being picked off one by one but that should not be taken to mean that the surviving herd is strong and lean (witness the early summer sales).

Talk to retailers and it's clear: they've been hit on several fronts. The Government's austerity measures have dealt a severe blow - not directly but by contributing to a gloomy mood that has existed since the credit crunch started.

Much of this is global and political, and beyond anyone's control. Inflation is climbing, much of it driven by an oil price that has remained resolutely high, at more than $100 a barrel. The continuing unrest in the Middle East means it will remain there for some months to come.

Bankers are reporting they're sitting on large individual deposits as today's GDP numbers (see Page 34) show disposable incomes plummeting. Nobody wants to rush out and buy.

Shoppers are also turning increasingly to the internet. That, plus the rise of the out-of-town retail park, was bound to provoke a reaction in traditional retailing.

What can ministers do? In truth, not much. They could agree to allow tenanted stores a business rate holiday - on the basis they're already subject to punishing rent reviews - as some argue. But that would squeeze council budgets.

Similarly, they could reduce VAT or widen the exemptions - again that would damage the public finances (and send a terrible signal to markets searching for any sudden change of tack and possible loss of confidence).

Retail districts could be made more attractive but that will take time. Right now, there is every reason to believe that this will get worse before it gets better.