Morning:
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These are interesting times for Japan. Some time in the near future China is expected to overtake it to become the second-largest economy in the world.
Eventually it will regain its reputation as a byword for reliability and quality but just now it remains shaken to the core by problems at Toyota and that company's failure to deal properly with the problem of jammed accelerators.
Its national airline JAL collapsed into bankruptcy a few weeks ago. The economy languishes near a zero growth rate, as it has done for the past 20 years, and, as if this weren't dismal enough, government debt is nearly 200% of GDP.
Also, its traditional relationship with the US is being questioned in the light of the rise of China and its new-ish Prime Minister's popularity is already falling in a way which indicates a continued lack of political will to deal rigorously with Japan's problems.
In other words it is time to buy.
That's probably a bit strong but global investors are showing a growing interest in Japan, though admittedly their enthusiasm is tempered by scepticism on the other side which, having been burnt several times before, holds to the view that it is a waste of time to believe anything is really changing.
Nevertheless the bulls believe Japan will outperform most developed markets this year, and if the yen were to weaken, which perhaps it should, then that outperformance could be quite marked.
Interestingly the negatives, such as being overtaken by China, are also some of the positives.
Japan is one of the biggest exporters of quality goods to China so the more that economy grows the more Japan sells to it.
Asia as a whole takes some 60% of Japanese exports which means that, among developed nations, Japan is far and away the major supplier to the fastest-growing part of the world.
The collapse of JAL also has its positive side: the traditional Japanese solution would have been to prop it up with some form of state subsidy but its fall has been seen by some as a sign Japan is now willing to tackle deep-seated inefficiencies, a view supported by the new-found desire of Japanese manufacturers to cut capacity and lay off workers during the recession.
Now it is a fact that Japan has been a graveyard for Western investors for the past two decades. They have lost more money here gambling on an upturn than in any other market, so a lot will never be convinced.
But for those who think this time it could be different, the market is cheaper than it has ever been. There could be worse bets on the future prosperity of Asia.
