2006 'likely to be warmest year on record'

Gallery... • Trail of destruction as tornado hits Hampshire

Read more here...

• UK put on tornado alert

• Twister hits Hampshire • Torrential rain causes havoc for motorists

Figures for Central England for the autumn quarter (September to November) show that, with only a few days to go, the previous autumn record set in 1730 will be easily broken.

Get your five-day forecast here

The statistics for each month are as follows:

• September - Central England temperature (CET) 16.6C, which is 2.9C above normal, the equal warmest on record;

• October - CET 12.9C, which is 2.5C above normal, and the fourth warmest on record;

• November - CET 7.9C, which is 1C above normal.

Autumn's CET is 12.5C which is 2.1C above normal, and a new record.

Previous warm autumns occurred in:

• 1730 - 11.8C;

• 1731 - 11.8C;

• 1729 - 11.6C;

• 1818 - 11.6C;

• 1959 - 11.5C;

• 1978 - 11.5C.

Mr Eden said that much of this autumn's warmth can be explained by the remarkable persistence of southerly and south-westerly winds, drawing air from sub-tropical latitudes across the British Isles.

The underlying warming trend in our climate has also been a contributory factor, and is probably responsible for breaking the record by such a wide margin.

Although this month began with a week of cold and frosty weather, temperatures have once again risen well above the seasonal average during the last three weeks.

It is predicted that the last few days of the month will be exceptionally mild, with readings of 14C-16C occurring widely.

The autumn has also been slightly wetter than average (by about 5%-10%), and much sunnier than average (by about 15%).

Although the weather this year was often rather cold until April - the first four months of the year were, together, the coldest since 2001 - the remarkably consistent warmth since then means that 2006 is likely to be the warmest year on record in Britain.

According to Mr Eden, December would have to be more than 1C colder than average to prevent the record being broken.

The Central England Temperature series is an internally consistent composite temperature record representative of the English Midlands compiled by the eminent climatologist Professor Gordon Manley.

It is the longest temperature series anywhere in the world, extending back to 1659.