An eclectic a line-up as ever, but don't expect a surprise winner

Yes, there could have been a completely different list of 12 albums that is equally as eclectic and intriguing and that pits major rock bands and jazz obscurities against each other in true Mercury style, yet there are no criminal omissions from this dozen. Doves, Manic Street Preachers, Lily Allen and Little Boots will all be justifiably disappointed today, but it's not worth getting upset over when indie rock and girly pop is still well-represented.

Nor do the outsiders surprise. Freeform jazz-rock fusionists Led Bib have been well-tipped for a nod by the six people who enjoy this kind of music, and Speech Debelle's sophisticated, acoustic hip hop was the obvious choice from the small field of British rap. By nominating a jazzy soul trio called The Invisible the judges seem almost to be making a knowing joke about their love for the obscure (good album though).

The real surprise is the inclusion of Kasabian. As the only nominees with a number one album they'll be early favourites, yet they've never been noted for the artistry that the Mercury traditionally champions. Characterised as purveyors of rowdy rock for ignorant Oasis fans, this is a welcome acknowledgement of the weirder side of their third album.

Among the indie rockers, Friendly Fires also deserve good odds for their exuberant debut, a word-of-mouth success so far that merits the spotlight the shortlist will shine on it. The eventual winner ought to be female, however. A woman hasn't won the prize since Ms Dynamite in 2002, and if the judges really want to reflect what's going on in British music right now they'll have to acknowledge the recent dominance of the fairer sex.

With their love for bizarre outfits, Florence And The Machine, Bat For Lashes and La Roux all ought to make room on their person to store an acceptance speech.