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Scientists predict massive global warming
By Suzy Austin, Metro Last updated at 00:00am on 27.01.05The world is likely to heat up by an average of 11°C by the end of the century, the biggest ever study of global warming showed yesterday.
And the effect could be even more marked in Britain, where temperatures could soar by up to 20°C unless greenhouse gases are cut.
Such a rise - far higher than the 2°C previously forecast - would see Britain endure tropical temperatures, flooding and devastating drought.
It would change the weather patterns of the world, melt the polar ice caps and warm the oceans, causing a surge in sea levels threatening the lives of billions of people.
The findings come from a study which tapped into the processing power of 100,000 home computers in 150 countries.
Researchers racked up the equivalent of 8,000 years of processing time as they ran 60,000 potential scenarios through the network, far more than the 128 scenarios the powerful computers at the Met Office can check in a year.
Each scenario was based on the assumption that carbon dioxide levels had reached double those of pre-Industrial Revolution times by the middle of this century.
Researcher David Stainforth, from Oxford University, said: 'An 11 degree warmed world would be a dramatically different world.
'Warming is not constant at all latitudes and tends to be greater at high latitudes.
'With a world warmed by 11 degrees there would be large areas of high latitude that could be 20 degrees warmer than they are today.
'I think it would probably not be a tropical paradise. The UK would be at the high end of
this change, well into the teens as the temperature changes. I don't think we'll be building many snowmen in winter, or going sledging.'
The findings could mean world leaders need to toughen their commitment in the Kyoto agreements to cut CO2 emissions to 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.
The warning came as Tony Blair used the World Economic Forum in Switzerland to call for action on global warming and to pressure America to sign up to Kyoto.
