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Odds are still in Labour's favour
By Paul Waugh Deputy Political Editor, Evening Standard Last updated at 00:00am on 05.04.05Tony Blair told the Cabinet last week that this would be a turnout election and today's polls prove his point in dramatic fashion.
The Mori poll for the Financial Times underlines just how crucial it is for Labour to get its supporters to the polling stations on 5 May.
The survey's clear five-point lead for the Tories is among those who are absolutely certain to vote. But when Mori tested the wider issue of general support for the parties, the position is reversed and Labour has a five-point lead.
Today's Guardian/ICM poll echoes the turnout point, giving Mr Blair a three-point lead among all voters, not just the "definites".
Both follow last month's British Election Survey which again gave the Tories a narrow lead among those in the certaintoturn-out category.
All of the parties will, in a way, be unsurprised by the starkly contrasting results because they have long known there is a huge difference between "soft" support and "hard" support among the electorate.
In short, Conservative supporters angry at Mr Blair's seven years of spin and lack of delivery are more motivated to get to the ballot box. Labour supporters may support some of the party's achievements in Government, but the Iraq war and the Prime Minister's personality may be a bar to them putting their cross on the ballot paper.
Tory chairman Liam Fox has been telling his backbenchers that internal party polling points to a hung Parliament if turnout falls below the 59 per cent of the 2001 election.
Similarly, Labour's polling guru Philip Gould has been stressing that the margin for error is so small that every effort has to be made to mobilise, if not scare, "soft" Labour people into casting "hard" votes.
But simply because the party strategists have long been aware of this factor - known in the trade as "differential turnout" - does not mean it always materialises. In 2001, William Hague was convinced by research showing he could slash Blair's majority if only Labour voters stayed at home. Although many did, it was not enough to cause any real damage.
The key difference this year is that the Tories have a more effective leader and the public's weariness with Mr Blair to capitalise upon.
Perhaps the key finding that should worry all the parties is the Mori/FT survey showing the public is in a tremendously volatile mood. With the election set for one month's time, the poll shows 41 per cent of people saying they may change their mind before polling day.
This raises the nightmare scenario for Labour that tactical voting, the effect that dethroned the Tories in 1997, could work against it for the first time in a generation. Labour voters backing Liberal Democrat and Tory candidates just to give Mr Blair a bloody nose could wipe out his 161 seat majority.
One counter factor is that Labour still benefits from the boundary changes of the 1990s when many seats were adapted in its favour. Together with the the winner-takes-all electoral system of first-past-the-post, this means the Opposition needs a huge swing to gain a majority.
It is far from credible yet, but if they are again defeated by the electoral system the Tories may have to consider calling for voting reform. Now that really would be a surprise.
