Met Office predicts hottest Autumn for 300 years

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Britain is on course to record the warmest Autumn for nearly 300 years, according to the Met Office.

Forecasters claim that temperatures for the combined period of September, October and November have not been as high since 1731.

Although September 1 to November 21 was the warmest since 1772 if the average temperature for the three months stays above 11.8C for the remainder of the season it will become the warmest Autumn on record.

Official figures are expected to be published at the start of next month but experts at the Met Office say that temperatures for November are already 0.8C above the average for the month alone, at 7.8C.

"It will be touch and go as to whether or not it becomes the warmest Autumn on record but we don't expect there to be any adverse weather between now and the end of the month so it certainly has a fighting chance," said a spokesman.

"It's been an exceptionally warm period and with November showing no signs of change we anticipate that it will either be the warmest or one of the warmest ever recorded."

Based on figures collated from central England, October was the third warmest on record with a mean temperature of 13C. Only October 2001 and October last year were warmer, with mean temperatures of 13.3C and 13.1C respectively.

But the Met Office has warned that the mildest Autumn temperatures since records began in 1659 - culminating in the late falling of leaves - is a disturbing sign of the effect of global warming on the UK's changing weather patterns.

The spokesman for the Met Office added: "It comes on the back of the warmest July and September on record. Research has underlined that this warming trend is attributable to human activity, like the burning of fossil fuels and nothing else.

"Generally the impact of climate change for the UK is perceived as a bad thing but of course there will be winners and losers. But overall climate change is a negative thing and will inevitably lead to longer droughts.

"When we factor in only natural  phenomenon we cannot account for the recent observed warming trend. This can only be simulated on our computer models if we factor in human activity on the planet."

But critics claim, however, that the change in temperature in recent years is simply down to changing weather patterns.

In a speech earlier this month Lord Lawson, 74, responding to the recent apocalyptic report on global warming by Sir Nicholas Stern, accused the some of the country's top scientists of "regrettable arrogance and intolerance" in the debate over climate change.

He told the Centre for Police studies that the "highly complex science of climatology" was "uncertain", adding: "Neither scientists nor politicians serve either the truth or the people by pretending to know more than they do."

He said evidence suggested global warming was more acute at the end of the last century, and pointed out that in the past 2,000 years Britain had been both warmer and colder than it is now.

He also suggested politicians were exploiting man's vulnerability to warnings such as "the end of the world is nigh".

Details of the record-breaking season were released as forecasters warned Britain to brace itself for potentially dangerous gales which are expected to batter parts of the country over the next 24 hours.

They are predicting high winds with gusts of up to 75mph with southern and eastern parts of the UK most at risk.

 

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