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Why 10m Britons will be from a minority by 2027
Last updated at 09:52am on 13.03.07
Predictions: Professor David Coleman
Immigration is fuelling the biggest population growth since the post-war baby boom, according to a leading academic.
Oxford professor David Coleman says migration is leading to "quite radical ethnic changes".
These include the ethnic minority population of Britain almost doubling within the next 20 years to 10million.
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Professor Coleman, an internationally-respected expert in demography, made his remarks to a Tory policy review group.
The session also heard a warning from the British Chambers of Commerce that young British workers are being "displaced" in the job market by migrants, including eastern Europeans.
BCC boss David Frost said it was "not tenable" for the young people to be left out of work in the long term.
Professor Coleman, who has faced demands from Student Action for Refugees to be sacked over his links to the Migrationwatch thinktank, said the population was growing by 0.6 per cent every year.
By far the most significant factor is migration - which has added an average of 204,000 extra people each year since 2004.
By 2051, the total population will have reached almost 70million, an increase of 10million.
Professor Coleman said the current rate of growth was the greatest since the 1940s and 1950s.
He added: "Quite radical ethnic changes are taking place."
As well as the growth in ethnic minorities, the white non-British population will also increase dramatically. Figures produced by Professor Coleman from Government estimates show it is expected to hit around 5million by 2026 - up by 3million.
The session, which will help to shape Tory immigration policy for the next election, heard that 700,000 eastern Europeans have moved to Britain since the expansion of the EU on May 1, 2004.
Mr Frost said the influx was leaving young Britons out of work.
Those from countries such as Poland often arrive with degrees but are willing to take nongraduate jobs. This leaves Britons without degrees with nowhere to turn.
He added: "There are now some concerns, wider economic concerns, coming through from the business community. There is a feeling that young white males are being displaced by migrants from eastern Europe, and that position is not tenable."
The scenario described by Mr Frost - who said seven out of ten company bosses do not want further expansion in the labour market from overseas - will set alarm bells ringing among Labour MPs, who fear a backlash from voters.
MPs have already warned that wages will be slashed because Poles are willing to work for less.
Professor Coleman questioned the Government's strategy of flooding the labour market with low- skilled workers. He said: "Employers are getting a very good deal from the present set-up.
"They benefit from the relatively low wages being paid to immigrant groups without having to bear the costs these low wages generate, such as access to housing.
"The taxpayer is subsidising the employers in picking up the bill."
The professor has received support from across the academic world after being criticised by the student group, known as STAR.
The group claims the Migrationwatch group is racist, a charge which has been widely rebutted.
A Home Office spokesman said that overall, migration is good for employment and the economy.
But, after concerns from local communities, the Government had placed tougher restrictions on those from new EU member countries Bulgaria and Romania.
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Reader views (5)
As there are no records as to how many of these immigrants leave the UK again after a few months or years, there is no factual basis to Professor Coleman's statistics.
- Victoria, London, UK
"Mr Frost said the influx was leaving young Britons out of work."
Same as here in US, the flood of illegal immigrants, mostly Mexican, has the same effect on the unskilled job market. Youngsters' traditional first jobs eg. fast food places, are being taken by these people too. The government seems to not care, after all it keeps labour costs down and tax receipts up. Same attitude in UK no doubt.
Oh, and Andrew Owens, well said.
- Stan, Expat
Although this is one part of the debate, surely another part should be the examination of why are so many 'traditional' British people are emigrating to places such as Australia, New Zealand, Canada and mainland Europe?
I'm hoping that my visa for residency for Australia comes through ASAP - lifes hopes for my 2 young children should mean more than road pricing, asbo's, suffering the daily commute to London, what seems like new daily tax initiatives and with the call for higher ineterst rates and inflation creeping higher all the time (how when pay rises do not exceed 2.5%?)
Life may not be greener on the other side of the world, but it certainly looks more attractive from my desk at work...
- Steve Dickinson, Witham, UK
When "Britons" are a minority perhaps the government will start to fall over themselves to listen to us.
- Andy, london
A colour-blind, rational debate on the current high levels of net migration to the UK is well overdue. Has anyone in the government seriously considered the enormous negative impact on the environment, congestion, housing, social cohesion and general quality of life of the UK having a 70 million population? Yes, a lot of migrants contribute to the UK and yes, many are prepared happily to do the work our 'own' unemployed feel unable or unwilling to do. But the long term cost to all of us, of all races and religions, of squeezing a further 10m people into the already overcrowded UK far outweigh the short term gains of being able to get a new kitchen fitted cheaply.
- Andrew Owens, London
