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Global warming? It's natural, say experts
Last updated at 00:22am on 14.09.07
Some scientists have suggested global warming is due to a natural 1,500-year cycle
Authors Dennis Avery and Fred Singer looked at the work of more than 500 scientists and argue that these experts are doubtful the phenomenon is caused by man-made greenhouse gases.
Climate change is much more likely to be part of a cycle of warming and cooling that has happened regularly every 1,500 years for the last million years, they say.
And the doom and gloom merchants, who point to the threat to the polar bear from the melting North Pole, are wrong, the authors say.
Even if our climate is changing, it is not all bad, they suggest, because past cold periods have killed twice as many people as warm periods. Mr Avery said: "Not all of these researchers who doubt man-made climate change would describe themselves as global warming sceptics but the evidence in their studies is there for all to see.
"Two thousand years of published human histories say that the warm periods were good for people.
"It was the harsh, unstable Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age that brought bigger storms, untimely frost, widespread famine, plagues and disease."
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Recent flooding in the UK has fuelled fears about global warming, but scientists are debating what has caused it
Mr Singer said: "We have a greenhouse theory with no evidence to support it, except a moderate warming turned into a scare by computer models whose results have never been verified with real-world events.
"The models only reflect the warming, not its cause."
The most recent global warming was between 1850 and 1940, the authors say, and was therefore probably not caused by man-made greenhouse gases.
Historical evidence of the natural cycle includes a record of floods on the Nile going back 5,000 years; Roman wine production in Britain in the first century AD; and thousands of museum paintings that portray sunnier skies during what is called the Medieval Warming, and more clouds during the Little Ice Age.
The authors looked at a raft of studies which, they claim, undermine the "scare-mongering" by those blaming man for destroying the planet.
In the current warming cycle, they say there is evidence that storms and droughts have been fewer and milder; corals, trees, birds, mammals and butterflies have adapted well; and sea levels are not rising significantly.
Polar bears are threatened by global warming
Mr Avery is a fellow of the Hudson Institute, an independent U.S. thinktank that tends to side with big business.
He was a senior agricultural analyst at the State Department when Ronald Reagan was president. Mr Singer is a climate physicist.
The pair spent months analysing scientific reports for their book, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, to counter claims made by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth.
They argue that variations in the Sun's radiation have far more influence on our climate than humans.
Mr Singer said: "This can all be explained by the Sun's activity."
He added: "The number of the Sun's cosmic rays hitting the Earth affect the number of low, cooling clouds that reflect solar heat back into space, amplifying small variations in the intensity of the Sun."
Reader views (31)
global warming is natural. but deforestation is not helping.Plus global population control is needed, before mother nature does it for us.
- Kev, Denbigh Denbighshire
Now, I have to do a report on what i believe is the cause of Global Warming, humans or is it just natural. After reading this article and many others it seems to be so that global warming is just natural. Temperature has been MUCH higher before and has melted more ice than it is now. After the small heat wave the earth seemed to cool down and replenish itself it, a way to get ready for the natural occurrence once again. We dont need to cut down on the use of CO2 anyway because it has nothing to with the rise of the temperature; the rise of temperature has everything to do with the rise of CO2. If anyone help me find one more great reason why global warming isnt our fault, it would be greatly appreciated.
- Chance Lee-Casey, Oxford United States of America
Cara. the ozone has oviously just got bored and slowly committed suicide by gorging itself on cheese.
- Peep, london, USA
the polar bear is really cute please dont die.
- Patricia, nomansville
How do you explain how the giant hole in the ozone layer got there if global warming is natural?
- Cara, Huntington, USA
Many of the scientists Singer and Avery mention have been badly represented by them and afterwards demanded to have their name struck off the list.
Singer and Avery are hardcore conservative scientists and even more so, spinnners.
- Laurent Rose, Islington
At last a sensible analysis which goes against the media hysteria on "global warming induced by human activity "!
The ONLY reason behind all the politicians noise about this, and particularly in France, is a cause for more taxation, nothing else!
- Desgranges, Paris
Why does Mr Nadler think we'd all die if the world warmed up a little? No-one knows whether a rise of more than a degree would generate positive, negative, or no feedback - clouds are still not understood that well. My guess is that all the extra heat would make the air steamy, and white clouds (at the right altitude) reflect sunlight back into space. To declare a certain 100% mortality is not within his knowledge. It has never ever happened in 4.5 billion years so I'm betting Gaia has a few cards up her sleeve! The really stark truth is that even if we knew for certain that reducing global anthropogenic co2 emissions by 30% by 2030 (or whatever) would save our precious way of life and doing nothing would definitely consign us all to a terrible death... we wouldn't be able to do it. Stopping burning oil would cause the biggest upheaval imaginable, and we'd all die in the armageddon-like aftermath of a world without power, light, heat or plastic, drugs, etc. Oil is more essential for life in the 21st century than a global mean temp of 15C (or whatever). It's not nice to admit that we've trapped ourselves in our luxury blanket, but look at what a little local flood or power cut or bomb on the tube does to the smooth running of society. We are truly vulnerable as a society (even to spikes in the solar wind for heaven's sake).
- Ben Johnson, Newcastle, England
Finally a word of scientific truth in the media concerning the climate. The earth has experienced about 16 global warmings like the one we are now enjoying since the ice age. Because of the current natural climate improvement the CO2 level is also rising due the the warming of the oceans.
According to the Russian sun experts we are already in 2012 heading into a new little ice age so it is high time to start planning for failed harwests and famine. History repeats itself.
- Dr Fred Goldberg, Lidingö, Sweden
If you read the titles of the papers they only show natural causes and cycles down the ages. No climate scientist disputes that. The question is whether the global warming observed since the mid 1970s is caused by human activity. The world's leading climatologists at the IPCC are 90% it is human caused.
- Isidore, London UK
Only one thing is clear - no-one can be sure of the answer. So if we do too much about a problem that might actually not be there, we could send the world into a deeper recession than any before. On the other hand, if we do nothing about a real problem, we're all dead. Personally I prefer a recession.
- Robert Nadler, London, UK
Here we go again with another "black" and "white" debate about climate. I also agree with the article and suspect that climate change is natural but that doesn't mean that we all have to be wasteful and go on polluting without control. Some sensible mid ground is needed with a review of some of our desires for bigger, better and instantaneously gratifying habits fuelled by excessive advertising, free handouts, gas guzzling urban "tanks", unnecessary car journeys and the latest gadgets. Compare this with true "progress" caused by good technology and global business development, leading to a better lifestyle for all, not just the individual. Taxation, which amongst other things, goes in a pot to fund unnecessary overseas wars is not going to alter the climate, other than to its detriment.
- Paul, Twickenham
Another well-funded climate change denier, making noise out of all proportion to their intellectual weight, spinning the usual obfuscations.
- Mary Morton, Sydney, Australia
Considering the risks to their personal safety and to their work opporunities, I applaud these scientists for speaking up against the 'accepted wisdom' of the politically and financially motivated groups who constantly go on about how bad mankind is but refuse to have truly open peer level reviews of their work.
- Graham, Reading, England
There is extensive evidence for man-made climate change - including a world-wide concensus of all scientific bodies not directly funded by oil companies.
- Andy Brazil, London, UK
Looks like the BBC and the Government are going to have to invent another scare to squeeze taxes from us.
How about little green men from outer space?
- Bob Wood, Surbiton
Global warming was invented by the UK government in order to raise taxes.
It's a shame that Cameron hasn't got the guts to stand up and take the opposite point of view to Brown, like he should do.
- Simon, London
Phew, at last I can sleep at night and not feel guilty for buying a Land Rover (and supporting a British company).
- Nobby Clark, London,
There is no evidence for man-made global warming; none, not any of any knd. Recent climate changes are all within the range of natural climate changes that have happened in the past. Anybody who doubts this should read the recent publication from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
A claim that man-made global warming exists is merely an assertion: it is not evidence and it is not fact. And the assertion does not become evidence or fact by being voiced, written in words, or written in computer code.
- Richard S Courtney, Falmouth, UK
So they don't actually have data to corroborate this then, a bit like the Channel 4's Global warming swindle program which made up "facts" to prove the non existence of Global Warming?
- Terry Roll, London
At last some sensible reading...
- Pat, Sussex
I suggest people don't take this at face value. The authors' research comes from the abstracts on the papers they claim to have studied, rather than from studying the papers themselves. It's poor science designed to promote an agenda, rather than an impartial view on climate change.
Anyone keen to explore further can find most of the papers referenced in this book via Google Scholar - including a number of papers that disprove Singer's claims that cosmic rays are to blame.
- Mark, London, UK
The truth is out there but unfortunately politicians would have too much egg on their faces to see it!
- Keith Simpson, Wareham, England
As we are in the tail end of the last ice age it is obvious that things will become warmer, isn't it? Shame as it is for polar bears etc however polar caps are only there during an ice age.
But the hysteria is BIG business now just like the non event year 2000 predictions.
- Steve, London
Yet again when someone disagrees with the currently accepted version of what is causing global warming you have to resort to that cliched line that they are in the pockets of big business.
- Paul Urban, London, UK
At last - a scientist speaking some sense for once.
- Simon, London
No excuse now for these trumped up green taxes- oh, hang on, most of the populace have been successfully brainwashed so what the hell.
- Dave, London
Anyone who says this can all be explained by the sun's activity is one sandwich short of a picnic and NOT responsible. We have had in the last 2 centuries a populaton explosion of human beings and all their activitys like no other, we dump huge amounts of pollutants in the sea and land and we use central heating willy nilly on a huge scale. Our buildings are lit up at night and we have billions of lamp posts in the world which never existed before. All of these factors together which are unnatural along with the sun's activities which are natural will have global warming affects and we need to be responsible towards our planet. Mind you we are so over-populated as a planet now God alone knows what's going to happen in 50 years' time
- Ruby, FRANCE
Avery is a conman. This is the guy who claimed organic food was much more dangerous then agro-industrial food.
Singer is a physicist, but has he ever done any significant research about global warming? I couldn't find any.
These kinds of people are exactly the ones Al Gore warns about: they're not real scientists; they just undermine the belief in global warming, claiming it's rather a theory them fact.
I wonder if the people in flooded areas will believe this. Also, their theory contradicts the fact that there has never been so little ice on the North Pole.
- William Bliss, Bangkok, Thailand
The inconvenient truth says that some scientists have came to that conclusion, however...500 isn't a large number compared to how many people are actually studying this issue. So, I disagree, and even though AL Gore's movie was a from a bias perspective, he used pretty intense facts to back them up. If this article came with a graph or some sort of proof, it would be a bit more factual (and believable).
- Afsa, Mississauga Ontatio
Of course global warming is natural. The British government and the councils have jumped on the back of a natural phenomena and are using it to raise taxes. One of the many reasons that I left.
- Casper, Ibiza Spain
