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Migrant jobs fiasco: Official estimate goes from 800,000 to 1.5m in 24 hours
Last updated at 09:22am on 31.10.07The number of jobs being snapped up by migrants has been greatly underestimated, Ministers had to admit yesterday.
Challenged: Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain revised his original figures
An official figure was virtually doubled - but critics said the true total was higher still.
In a day of confusion, Whitehall departments contradicted each other as the issue threatened to become a full scale Government crisis.
The chaos appeared to undermine Gordon Brown's pledge of "British jobs for British workers".
The row followed a claim by Work and Pensions Secretary Peter Hain that 2.7million jobs had been created under Labour, of which only 800,000 had gone to people from overseas.
Challenged by former Labour Minister Frank Field, however, Mr Hain revised the figure to 1,100,000.
Home Secretary Jacqui Smith said later that this still meant the majority of new jobs had gone to Britons.
But the Department of Work and Pensions had already quietly issued a "clarification" admitting that foreigners had taken a majority, 52 per cent.
And yet another official figure, this time from the Government's own Office for National Statistics, put the total of migrant workers at 1.5million.
Ministers are painfully aware that public concern over immigration is running high, following greatly-increased official population projections last week and the decision of Tory leader David Cameron to call for migration quotas and limits.
At least 40 local councils have complained to the Government that an influx of migrants means their populations have been underestimated and they cannot afford to pay for school places, social services or everyday activities like waste collection.
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Blunder: Ministers admitted that they have miscounted the number of foreign workers in the UK by more than 300,000
Hospitals and schools are under huge pressure and ministers are expected soon to increase their estimate that immigration is responsible for a third of demand for housing.
The UK population is officially expected to grow by 10 million over the next 25 years, with seven million of that the result of immigration.
A senior Bank of England expert, Professor David Blanchflower, warned yesterday that immigration was creating a fear of unemployment and as a result wages were being pushed down.
Opposition MPs were scathing about the everchanging figures.
Shadow Home Secretary David Davis said: "It is not good enough for the home secretary to apologise.
"The government should be open about telling the truth before they are pressurised into it.
"Immigration policy has been out of control for a decade and, if you can't count migration, you certainly can't control it."
Tory Work and Pensions spokesman Chris Grayling, said: "This just gets worse.
"It is clear we simply can't trust the figures or statements put out by the Government on migrant workers in the UK.
"Ministers need to carry out an urgent review of how they handle this data and need to clear up once and for all how many people come to work in Britain."
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Immigration: Cameron called for migration quotas and limits
Labour MPs also mounted attacks. Mr Field - Tony Blair's original welfare reform minister - said even the figure of 1.5million was too low.
He said it had been based on a projection of the employment situation in 2003.
That meant it took no account of the tide of workers arriving from Poland and the other new EU members in Eastern Europe.
The Birkenhead MP said: "This would suggest that the original figure they gave me of 800,000 needs to be revised upwards to the 1.6 million level."
Another former Labour minister, Keith Vaz, said that getting the figures wrong had been "pretty astonishing".
He accused ministers of doing too little to produce accurate accounts of "a very tough and emotive area such as immigration".
Mr Vaz, now chairman of the Home Affairs Select committee, told the BBC's Today programme: "One of the things we all expect governments to be able to do is to give accurate figures to the public. I don't think it is enough for ministers to shrug their shoulders."
Mr Hain's climbdown from the 800,000 level was the culmination of weeks of growing concern over the impact of rising immigration.
Last week the Office of National Statistics pushed up its estimates of future population and said that there will be 71 million people in the country by 2031, ten million more than now, largely as a result of immigration.
Whitehall advisors have told the Prime Minister that he must revise upwards his target of three million new homes to be built by 2020, mainly because of increased immigration.
Mr Brown is being told that he should concrete over the green belts around cities to achieve the numbers.
Official estimates of the numbers of workers born outside Britain are even higher than those for numbers of foreign nationals which are at the centre of the latest row.
The ONS says there are now 3,269,000 people working in Britain who were born abroad, although these include the children of British passport holders.
ONS chief Karen Dunnell told MPs in July that 1.5 million people who were born abroad have come to Britain over the last 10 years and are now working.
The figures appear to support the claim that the Government's 1.1million latest number for foreign citizens who have taken jobs since 1997 is still too low.
The Bank of England's Professor Blanchflower warned last night that the influx from Eastern Europe is suppressing British wages, especially among low-skilled workers.
He said Eastern Europeans have flocked here because the UK is one of the few EU countries whose borders are fully open to them.
But he said Britain had the capacity to absorb "reasonably large" number of immigrants "without too many undesireable consequences" because population growth over the past three decades had been slower than in most advanced economies.
Migrant quotas to remain to avoid "free-for-all"
Limits must be imposed on mass immigration from Eastern Europe because of "pressure on public services", Labour said yesterday.
The Home Office has ruled out a free-for-all for migrants from Romania and Bulgaria, which joined the EU in January, and said a 20,000 cap on the number of unskilled workers would stay.
Prudent: Immigration minister Liam Byrne said the 20,000 limit should be kept until at least the end of next year
But critics pointed out that anyone from the two countries can work here without restriction if they claim to be self employed or students working part-time - and the Government does not even know how many are already here.
Ministers imposed the 20,000 limit in response to concern over the numbers entering Britain from eight other Eastern European states after they joined the EU in 2004.
Labour originally predicted that 13,000 a year would arrive but in reality more than 600,000 came to find work. Some councils have complained that services are under strain as a result.
Immigration minister Liam Byrne said yesterday he had decided it was "prudent" to keep the 20,000 limit at least to the end of 2008.
He added: "While accession workers have made a positive contribution to Britain's economy, there are signs of a wider impact on public services."
Tory spokesman Damian Green said unless the Government sets an explicit limit on migration from outside the EU yesterday's announcement was "nothing more than a sticking plaster, trying to mend an immigration system that still remains not fit for purpose".
Official figures show more than 8,000 Eastern European arrive in Britain every day, taking advantage of freedom of movement within the EU.
With no accurate count of how many return after short visits and how many stay on seeking employment, the Home Office has little idea of the real scale of the influx.
Reader views (48)
Here's a sample of the latest views published.
As I am now a minority in my area (white and male) do I qualify for all the positive discrimination measures that this Government is so keen on?
- Adam, Harrow, UK
You only have to travel on London Transport and you can see and hear that most of the people using the buses and tubes are not British, let's bring in the points system like Australia and only allow the people we want and need in the country before we sink under the weight of these people!
- Linda Cliff, London
In 10 years of 'New' Labour, have they done anything to improve our country for the average Brit?
- Doug Watt, London
The figures came initially from Peter Hain. He was the President of the Young Liberals at the party conferences at Scarborough in 1975 and at lLandudno.
- Time Will Tell, Guildford, England
This is all a step towards a one-world government. The borders between US, Canada and Mexico are secretly being erased to create the North American Union in 2010. Next will be the Asian Union. The goal is a one-world government.
- Nige, London
Don't stop now Labour you've messed the whole country up - let them all in why not.
- Jay, London
To David and Murali:
It's too late! The country you live in is called European Union. No politician in the UK province can dictate who crosses the UK border!
- Phil Jones, London, UK
How many Brits are on benefits because they simply don't want to work? I hate to say it but the British are lazy and don't want to work. Why shouldn't someone else have the job.
- D, London, UK
And so the importance of the Referendum over the European Union/Treaty grows in importance every day and every hour. It seems the irretrievable position with Immigration the UK now faces will only be exacerbated by the liberal elite of Europe if they have their way. All the chaos thrust upon us by Nu-Labour must have been an absolute gift for the despots in charge of some of the Third World countries whose subjects have chosen to shelter with us at our expense.
- Robert, Kirk Ella, East Yorks.,
The next step will be positive discrimination to help all these under-represented new minorities on to the job ladder. In fact it's already happening to some degree. Born here and better qualified for the job? Tough! You will be 'asked' to make way for the new arrivals.
- Charles, Bath, UK
Somehow I think even 1.5m is a gross understatement. Cheers Bliar.
- Jay, London, UK
Government's frequent revision of immigration statistics reveals the true extent of influx into the country putting considerable pressure on social services. Labour has lost control over the borders through its short sighted policies and needs to get a grip on the problem before the influx creates serious social and economic problems.
- Murali Mohan, Maida Vale, UK
You only have to look around London to realise these numbers are still far too low. There are now many parts of the city and population that do not resemble anything British.
- Brandon Thomas, London, UK
Are we sure we know the correct number of MPs in Parliament?
- Mike, Sussex
If anyone thinks things are bad now - just imagine what will happen if and when Turkey accedes to the EU. The boundaries of the 'Europe' will be pushed back as far as Syria and Iraq, with no checks once anyone was in Turkey.
Oh, and forget about so-called 'benefits to the economy'. Since when has it been the case that businessmen with a vested interest in cheap labour and their own profits should dictate social and political policy for the rest of us?
If any mainstream political party took up a hard-faced approach to uncontrolled immigration as an issue, they would be swept into power at the next election, driving these Nu-Labour opportunists out forever.
- David, Cambridge, UK
One minute this bunch of idiots that we have sitting in the houses of parliament are telling us we have little water, failing gas and electricity supplies, wheat shortages, medical and dental shortages, roads filled to capacity, rubbish tips that will hold no more rubbish and then they say we need to build millions of new homes for millions of people who we do not need or want. There are just a few people who are benefiting from this and they are the businessmen and politicians hell bent on making maximum profit at any cost, that is one of the reasons why they are so pro European. When the crash comes this place will turn into a nightmare because of the liars and cheats that are occupying 10 Downing Street and parliament. They seem to be unable to tell the truth or give a straight answer to anything whether it is the Olympics or crime. Why can’t we have just sane sensible people running the place with some foresight and real feelings for this country?
- Stephen D., London, England.
Is is just coincidence that this 'bad news' for the government is released the day they break-up for yet another week's holiday?
- Tom, Luton
If there are only a million, they all live on my road. God help this country.
- Dave Belton, London, England
- There are so many more people in the workforce paying taxes
- services are worse than they have ever been
- tax take is at a record high
- the economy is at an all time high
- yet public borrowing continues to spiral out of control
We face armageddon in economic terms when the cycle turns. There will be fewer jobs -> less taxes PLUS higher benefits bills due to higher unemployment. The problem is that migrants not UK workers have taken many jobs whilst UK unemployed/don't want to work are paid too much in benefits. Adding up those on long term incapacity benefit (some genuine; others have been put on to make unemployment look lower) and those unemployed, we have more than 3m people of working age and most probably able to work on benefits. At the top of the economic cycle.
- Stuart W, London
So if the Govt. is running scared about revealling the true numbers of immigrants, then perhaps they should have been more careful over the treaty that basically gives anyone who lives in the EU the right to work anywhere.
We cannot stop people from the EU countries coming here. Likewise they cannot stop us from going and working in Poland etc.
- Adam, Harrow, UK
They need to stop Social Security and NHS for health tourists and people who are not British so are not entitled to it. We actually pay for it which people seem to forget. What about people that have paid taxes for years and can't get housing because immigrants come over and get everything for free. Time to stop this.
- Charlie, London
Don't forget the already overcrowded transport systems. Check out the situation at Streatham Common station at 7am every morning. Did rail planners allow for the fact that you can now barely get on the platform due to a maasive influx of Polish people? More trains are urgently needed.
- Luciano, Bristol
Even if we set quotas, which I support, I have no confidence that we would be able to manage and implement them.
- Stewart Steven, Crawley, UK
The ongoing full-blown debate on immigrants is OK. But, the rival parties, as well as the valued commentators must quit the number scoring game and, instead, be positive to suggest feasible and concrete measures which they think are 'a must' to cope with immigration issue. It goes without saying that performance of the Home Office over the last few years has been utterly disgusting. It is believed that apart from the fresh influx from Eastern Europe, tens of thousands of genuine (and, of course, not-so-genuine, too) immigration cases in respect of the nationals other than EU are pending with the Home Office as a huge backlog since ages. Quite naturally, majority of these individuals/families are compelled to work in UK in uncertainty (regardless of their immigration status) in order to make their end meet. Unless and until the fate of these desperate ones is not decided by the Home Office once for all, the ongoing number-game remains nothing but futile.
- Asghar, Nadeem, London, UK
The numbers are worse. Their best estimate was 300,000 illegal immigrants 3 years ago, this from the people that said 75 Polish plumbers. Their 2001 census was flawed by their own admission and this is only numbers (based on their ONS expert - who said only those that wanted to be counted were) that reflect legitimate existence. I feel the situation is out of control and combined with an unsubstantiated massive rise in taxes it has to stop. Now!
- Andy H, England
If this is the number of legal immigrants working here, just how many illegal workers are also here?
- Charles, Bath, UK
I can't see what people are maoning about to be honest, this is modern life and global community on the move. No longer are people shackled to their own country. Travel has made most destinations in the world possible and people quite rightly are trying to better themselves by moving to their country of choice.
I will be taking advantage of the same benifits of global travel and will be leaving the UK for good next year, I suggest the rest do the same if you don't like what it has become. It's too late to turn the clock back, what's done is done, time to get on with it!
- Dan, London
In response to Roberta.
It would appear that we are just on the verge of another recession, this is shown by the house prices finally beginning to fall and more reposessions happening. No doubt as happened with the last recession in the 80s, companies will start collapsing and making staff redundant. It may even happen to you.
Then, when you are looking for ANY job to pay your mortgage etc, you will find it much harder to find one because migrants are taking the lower paid jobs we may choose to take to just pay the rent and don't kid yourself that they will only be taking the lower paid jobs either, they won't.
So being as the likelihood of you being made redundant is going to increase and you may not find a job because of immigration, does that mean everyone else would be justified in calling you "work shy person who would rather collect their money from the state and sit on their backsides all day"?
- Kit Robinson, Hounslow
So who used to do all these jobs before the EU migrants?
- Bj, London, England
I think that even the 1.1 million is probably underestimating the numbers involved. Our services cannot cope with the numbers, be it housing, social services, education, health. We have not got a limitless fund to pay for this. Gordon though has borrowed and borrowed over the last ten years to keep this going, but now this is coming to an end.
- Nigel, Wimbledon
The Labour Party do seem to have rather a problem with numbers don't they? The Millennium Dome, Wembley Stadium, the Olympic stadiums, unemployment, Government IT projects not one of the quoted figures have been correct why on earth should we believe that anything else they do isn't done to the same high standards?
- Trevor Roll, London
Liberal Democrats - "Britain has benefited enormously from the labour of foreign national workers..."
HOW?
My Taxes have done nothing but increase under Labour. There are huge fights for increasingly reducing social resources. House prices have spiralled to ridiculous levels as more and more people compete for space. Hospitals and schools are being closed in my county by Labour.
How does this benefit Britain? I certainly do not benefit, if they mean business benefits then they should say so. The English certainly does not benefit.
- Frank, Home Counties, England
The government knew the real figures. They only disclosed them because of Tory pressure on the issue. Thank goodness this matter has reached boiling-point. British people (especially English because we take most of the immigrants) have been treated like fools.
- Philip, London, England
It is not the immigration laws that need to be changed. It is the benefits system that is the problem. Migrant workers have proved that it is possible to find a job, house/feed/clothe themselves AND send money home. Even if they have to live in crowded conditions. Too many people in this country don't bother to work because they are in subsidised housing and they have all sorts of benefits which allow them to simply 'hang out' doing nothing. If their benefits were cut, they would have to find work; there would be fewer vacancies for migrant workers and there would be fewer people wanting to come here.
- Beatriz, London
You can always tell when General Election is on the horizon - the Tories play the race card. Cameron is going to do something about immigration - I don't think so!
- Greg Williams, Luton
I think that we should be much stricter indeed on what we take in.
- Jacqueline, Hampstead, London
I like these ideas. Something needs changing!
- Laure, Islington, London
I agree there is too much immigration and even though we are all members of the EU there are ways we can control those that enter the country.
However, why is there such levels of immigration? It's because of the number of work shy British people who would rather collect their money from the state and sit on their backsides all day. If these people decided to work then the jobs for immigrants would not be there so they would not come over in the numbers that they do.
Immigrants have proved that if you want a job you can find one - so any one who is British and spend their time complaining about immigrants and is of good health and on the dole should have their money stopped. I am British and have worked every day for the last 20 years since leaving school at 16.
- Roberta, Croydon
Until we stop paying unqualified benefits, providing council housing, free NHS care, free education, free interpreters, free social services and the huge industry that exists to divert UK charitable donations into the pockets of various ' disadvantaged and refugee' groups, this situation will simply escalate - day by day, week by week. Face it, there is in fact - no disincentive for coming here at all!
- Gary Parker, Amersham
At last a debate on immigration and not before time. Despite all the rhetoric, I bet the Home Office are still handing out British Citizenship indiscriminately to anyone that applies to get the "foreign" numbers down.
- Ab, London
We are in the European Union, everyone in Europe is entitled to come and live here, so immigration cannot be restricted.
- Mick, London, England
Excessive and uncontrolled immigration is the biggest issue facing Britain today and probably the biggest political mistake of the last 60 years.
We are a small island with limited resources. Whilst many immigrants have made a positive contribution to Britain there are increasing numbers who are taking advantage of the British benefits system and British taxpayers can't afford to pay for any more. Disproportionate numbers of immigrants since Labour took power have been criminals their own countries were probably glad to see the back of.
Pretending this issue has anything to do with racism is ridiculous. It is a concern to the majority of taxpaying people in Britain regardless of their politics or the country of their birth. Cameron is right to face up to this issue.
- Clare, London
None of the mainstream parties will stop immigration, they see mass immigration as a weapon to keep the lower classes in place and to assist companies in paying lower wages. Why are young white people not being educated, why are they doomed to spend an average of 5 years on the dole while we import more workers. If this is really the advantage of an "advanced economy" I think I would prefer not to live in one. What right has the political class got to change the nature of our country in the fashion that they have been doing for the past 60 years and which has really accelerated over the last 20 years to a ridiculous level.
- Paul Urban, London, UK
If Cameron doesn't make a major stand on immigration and really listen to what the people of this country are saying then we can say goodbye to this country as we know it, because whatever Gordon Brown says on the subject we know that this was his and Blair's policy to fill Britain to capacity with immigrants be it from the EU countries or from outside.
Let's not pretend that this influx of people will stop by just talking about it, tough action is needed and that will need real leadership.
- Pat, Sussex
The question is, why should Brown tackle immigration when those which are "legally" in the UK are at some point going to vote for him because we are so welcoming?
If someone is going to seriously deal with this issue they should also be looking at much more determined and powerful enforcement and laws to deport those which are already here illegally and a massive restriction needs to be imposed on those from EU states.
- Kit Robinson, Hounslow
I just hope that this doesn't turn out to be just another debate where no action is taken. The vast number of immigrants is already starting to put strain on some of our resources and stop paying parents benefits for children that are not living in this country!
- Moo, South London, UK
Whatever Brown or Cameron say on immigration is immaterial, and they both fully know it. Just a big game for public consumption. Both are in favour of ratification of the Reform Treaty, and with ratification, it becomes immaterial what any premier as head of any of the new provinces thinks on immigration. Brown and Cameron know this full knew, yet they both continue to play this silly game. Everything in every walk of British life will change with ratification of the Reform Treaty, among them, any say on what will have become provincial borders. Brussels will determine immigration numbers into Europe, and where the entrants want to go within Europe after entry will be up to the entrants. Probably most will come to the United Kingdom because of the generous benefits compared to the other provinces.
- Phil Jones, London, UK
Good to see some high-level debate on this issue at last. The Blair/Brown government has consistently fudged and mishandled the issue of immigration, and it's high time for sensible discussion. This is an issue that affects all of the UK's communities. We all suffer the same if public services and infrastructure become overstretched.
There are tough questions here for Mr Brown...let's hope he has the courage to face up to them.
- Mark, London
