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Global warming could stop NATURALLY for ten years,' say scientists
Last updated at 13:37pm on 01.05.08Global warming will be "put on hold" over the next decade because of natural climate variations, scientists claim.
A study of sea temperature changes predicts a lull as traditional climate cycles cancel out the heating effect of greenhouse gases from pollution.
The findings suggest the official models used to predict short-term global warming patterns are too crude.
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Reprieve: The melting ice caps could stabalise over the next decade
But scientists say rising carbon dioxide levels caused by man will send temperatures up again after the natural trends peak and will continue to rise in following decades.
UN experts have said global temperatures are expected to increase by 0.3c over the next decade.
But the study by Dr Noel Keenlyside, of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany, predicts the temperature of the North Atlantic around Europe and North America may cool slightly.
Temperatures in the North Atlantic are influenced by a giant 'conveyor belt' of warm water from the south called the meridional overturning circulation.
This weakens and grows stronger every 80 years or so. When the circulation is strong, temperatures are warmer.
A new model of this pattern suggests it will weaken over the next ten years leading to cooler temperatures.
Writing in the journal Nature today, the scientists said: "Our results suggest global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade."
Dr Richard Wood of the Met Office Hadley Centre, said: 'Such a cooling could temporarily offset the longerterm warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases.
"That emphasises the need to consider climate variability and climate change together when making predictions over timescales of decades."
The Met Office believes 2008 will be slightly cooler than last year. But the last ten years remain the warmest decade in recent human history.
Reader views (4)
I think we should ignore global warming and let it go. Since all humans evolved from slime anyway, certainly we'll all just evolve our way out of anything global warming could present. hat a bunch of nutcases you enviro-losers are!!
- Jay, Hometown USA
I think we're missing the point here. It's not about a few degrees up or down, it's about mankind's impact on the planet. We need to get our act together before the build up of greenhouse gases on the atmosphere destroys life as we know it (or maybe we need to adapt to breathe on a carbon-rich environment)
- Julio, London
True Believers in the Global Warming [er, sorry, Climate Change] religion will not have their faith shaken by false prophets [er, sorry, computer models].
The fact that there is no way to validate a computer model predicting the climate into the far future will in no way shake their faith in computer models that predict global catastrophe.
- Martin A, Normandy, France
It's been getting colder in the air and the oceans for 10 years and that's a natural cause, but when it gets hotter the warming is not natural? Talk about ridicules and desperate, it’s been natural all the time, the sun activity.
So put that in your failed computer models and analyse it.
- Lance, Victoria BC
