Breast cancer rate may rise to one in seven by 2024

Experts blame lifestyle factors such as women having fewer and later babies, and the use of female hormones for increasing incidence of the disease.

One in ten British women develops breast cancer by the age of 80 but it is feared this may increase to one in seven by 2024.

Breast cancer rates are thought to increase due to lifestyle changes

The estimate is based on a study of women who carry gene mutations that can lead to the disease.

It found a dramatic increase in these women's risk of breast cancer in the past 60 years, which is reflected in the general population.

Professor Gareth Evans led the study of 1,442 women who carried the high-risk genes BRCA1 and BRCA2, on behalf of the Genesis Breast Cancer Prevention Centre, in Wythenshawe, Manchester.

Around one in 500 women is thought to carry the gene mutations which confer a lifetime breast cancer risk of 85 to 90 per cent.

The mutations are linked to around 5 per cent of breast cancers.

Professor Evans said: 'It is predicted that by the year 2024 one in seven to eight women will develop breast cancer by 80 years of age in the UK.'

The study showed that women with faults in the high-risk genes born prior to 1920 had a 7.5 per cent chance of breast cancer by the age of 40. The risk for women born after 1960 rose to 40 per cent.

The consultant in medical genetics at St Mary's Hospital and Christie Hospital, both in Manchester, said this was a 'true' rise even allowing for factors that might have affected breast cancer risk in the past.

The research, published today in the BMC Cancer journal, suggests the danger could be addressed by lifestyle changes.

Professor Evans recommended women have children earlier, avoid long-term use of female hormones and maintain a healthy weight.

He added: 'In under-developed countries the breast cancer rate is lower because women are thin, they have lots of children and don't use hormones in contraceptives and HRT.'

While acknowledging the challenges of family planning, he said diet and exercise were easier to control.

'A healthy weight is very important because a woman entering the menopause 22lb overweight doubles her risk of breast cancer,' he added.