Commentary: Sale will signal end to the panic and create calm

It became the high-profile victim of a fear which gripped the land that nothing was safe. Now, a generation later, history is repeating itself. This time it is HBOS, the Halifax Bank of Scotland group, and the reasons once again are similar. HBOS is massively committed to the property sector, home values are crumbling and people fear the bank will be crippled by the losses to come.

Of course NatWest did not go bust, and the thought that it might have been in danger turned out later to have been the high water mark of the panic, after which things began to calm down. The crisis was by no means over - but the approach to dealing with it became much more rational. Gradually things got sorted out.

HBOS is not going to go bust either. Depositors' money is safe, and in addition guaranteed by the Government, as indeed are all bank deposits after the collapse of Northern Rock.

The bank has a huge buffer of capital with which to meet any losses and it has highly attractive subsidiary businesses which it could sell for billions if it had to, among them the country's biggest insurance and savings operation, with such names as Clerical Medical and in Insight Investments, one of the biggest fund management groups.

Unfortunately what it does not have right now is the trust of the markets and that is both the symptom and the cause of its problems.

Like other banks it is constantly repaying and renewing loans in the wholesale markets, a process which in normal times happens almost automatically. But these are not normal times.

The collapse of trust is unprecedented in modern times, and with it goes the willingness to lend. So HBOS has an acute shortterm problem.

Now it may be that its problems could be solved as NatWest's were 30 years ago by a robust statement from management, but more likely it is too late for that. Likewise even a statement of support from Chancellor Alistair Darling or Bank of England governor Mervyn King risks not being enough. The more likely outcome therefore is a Merrill Lynch solution. Last week that investment bank was not thought to be in any immediate trouble.

But the collapse of Lehman changed the mood of the markets and it was wise enough to see that it was next in line for a speculative attack which was most likely to be on a scale which becomes selffulfilling-Its solution was to sell itself to Bank of America, an organisation so large it quelled even the most febrile speculator's doubts.

The attack on HBOS today was on such a scale that it too becomes selffulfilling, and the most obvious solution is for it to sell itself as fast as possible.

One potential buyer - the relatively untainted Lloyds TSB - let it be known this morning that it is already in advanced talks to buy it.

One would imagine the authorities will lock them in a room and not let them out until they have agreed a deal. That will save the bank, its lenders and its savers, but it is likely to be pretty brutal for shareholders.

But when it is done then one would hope that, like NatWest all those years ago, it will be seen as a signal for everyone to calm down.