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Crisis to hit one homeowner in 10, warns watchdog
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04 December 2007
In its starkest assessment of the fallout from the subprime and Northern Rock crises, the top financial regulator told lenders and customers they must be prepared for what lies ahead.
Clive Briault, head of the FSA's retail division, said: "We know that at least 1.4 million short-term fixed rates will end in 2008. Many of these borrowers are on relatively high loan-to-value ratios or income multiples and will find it difficult (if not impossible) to refinance their mortgage on favourable terms, which will leave them facing a significantly higher interest rate on their mortgage, which may prove too much for many of them to afford."
That could lead to a surge in repossessions to levels not seen for almost a decade. Briault continued: "Moreover, subprime borrowers may not have access to the market at any price, at least until the normal market mechanism of risk-adjusted pricing returns."
He added that the latest forecasts show house price growth is slowing rapidly and it remains to be seen how far the "events of the last summer", as the Treasury so nicely calls them, will effect the real economy.
The FSA has been at loggerheads with the Treasury and the Bank of England over who was responsible for the fate of Northern Rock since the run on the bank in September. Briault said: "It would be prudent to assume that market conditions will remain very difficult for a sustained period.
"Against that background, the negative impact of any adverse macro-economic and credit shocks could be considerably magnified with consequences for the balance sheets of mortgage lenders. So there is a real prospect that conditions will worsen further."
In a clear reference to the failure of Northern Rock, Briault said: "We want there to be a competitive and thriving mortgage market in the UK which clearly meets the needs of consumers.
"This requires lenders who have clear strategies that take account of the changing world with viable funding methods, and boards and managements that understand and know how to operate in the best interests of customers in a variety of market conditions."
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