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David Cameron has work to do to be a player in China
10 November 2010
But if he did, the conversation would be likely to open with the question: where does he come from? Should he ignore clan origins and respond "England", there would probably be a pause and then "Ah ... Looney!" is emitted with great enthusiasm. Few people in China know where Manchester is but most know it has a football team and a certain star player.
And that, unfortunately, represents the sum total of what most people here know about the UK. Football is probably one of our most successful cultural exports. That's true, even in Shanghai, where associations with Britain go back a long way. Although the UK is a major EU direct investor in China, it does not have the brand recognition or industrial presence in China of France or Germany.
So while President Hu's recent visit to France has had a lot of publicity, as did Obama's visit to India, Cameron's arrival is not so newsworthy. Cameron is a new player — and the Chinese need to see how he performs under pressure. The Chinese don't know him.
Beijing is used to visiting delegations. These have been a feature of the Great Hall of the People since it was first built. Every nation gets its turn. Some come in strength. The South African president, 11 ministers and 400 senior businessmen turned up last month to show they were serious. Although the Cameron party is smaller, it's still of a size to be of note. Commitment is important in China relations.
But the official rhetoric has changed. Now the talk is of "strategic partnerships" — when before it was always "co-operation". In many ways, this mirrors how China perceives itself. The old requirements for foreign capital have gone and even importing technology is less critical. As China steps out into the international arena as a key player, the new need is for political support. They know this will be muted at best from many Western countries. They are realists.
So as long as visitors avoid the sensitive subjects of Taiwan, Tibet, territorial claims and human rights, face will be preserved and benefits exchanged.
The Cameron visit is all about trade. But that may not be enough to avoid pressure to comment on political issues. Chinese business blogs refer to it as a "gold prospecting trip" and think it won't be able to ignore politics. They watch with a certain detachment. They don't know Cameron either and are more interested in what happens with the US at the G20. Like most Chinese, they are more interested in making money than politics.
Unfortunately the reverse is true for international opinion, and Cameron is treading a careful line today. But he should remember that China is all about face. Establishing relationships and quiet words as a friend in private are far more powerful than a vote- grabbing splash in the world's press.
Still, the UK business community hopes the delegation will be more about business than politics. Beneath the window dressing of contracts signed, the real issue is access to markets. China remains restrictive on foreign involvement in a number of sectors where UK companies excel.
For the Chinese, the Cameron visit is more likely to be judged not on what was said but rather on what wasn't.
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