David Cameron's fight to win over London with capital split on cuts

With controversy deepening over the Chancellor's decision to axe the weekly payment for 1.2 million higher earners, the Prime Minister promised the Coalition will bring in a modest tax break for married couples where one partner stays at home.

But his move came as the exclusive London Poll for the Evening Standard, LBC and London Tonight reveals that Londoners are deeply divided on the cuts, with two weeks to go to George Osborne's comprehensive review.

Nearly half, 45 per cent, support the tough cutbacks on welfare and public sector spending, despite the impact on the capital's high numbers of civil servants and housing benefit claimants. But almost the same proportion, 43 per cent, oppose the cuts.

The poll also shows that Labour has increased its lead over the Conservatives among the capital's voters, at 39 per cent to 36. Confronted with Labour's lead, Mr Cameron denied he was "losing London".

He added: "I don't believe we are and I think that Boris Johnson is doing a great job as Mayor ... but you know we are taking difficult decisions." Mr Cameron told LBC: "We inherited a complete mess from Labour and we have to clear up the mess."

The divide over George Osborne's spending cuts suggests the debate over reducing the deficit could go either way, particularly with thousands of civil service jobs in the capital at risk.

Other findings that show the political future of the capital up for grabs include:

* Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats have taken a hammering in the capital since forming the Coalition, down six points since the election, from 22 per cent to 16.

* Labour and the Tories have benefited from the Lib-Dem slide. Labour are up two in the capital, to lead on 39 per cent. The Conservatives are up one on 36.

* Boris Johnson is ahead of Ken Livingstone in the race to be Mayor in 2012 by 44 per cent to 35. A fifth of people who consider themselves Labour supporters say they would vote for Boris rather than Ken.

* Fewer than four in 10 Londoners think the coalition will last to a 2015 general election.

The poll contains challenges for all three parties.

It reveals that Mr Clegg is relying on new supporters to reduce the damage to his traditional support base.

Only 64 per cent of those who voted Lib-Dem at the general election say they would do so again.

Six in 10 Lib- Dem supporters think the Coalition will last, compared with eight in 10 Tories and just a fifth of Labour supporters.

Andrew Hawkins of pollsters ComRes said the Coalition was proving stronger than most people expected.

"Coalition governments are supposed to be inherently weak and unstable, yet only four in 10 Londoners expect the Coalition to collapse before its five years are up.

"Despite Tory support struggling in the wake of Labour's new leader, support for the public sector spending cuts remains relatively strong, even among Labour voters, although whether this is still the case after further details have emerged remains to be seen."

LBC's Nick Ferrari said: "This shows that while Boris Johnson has got the X Factor in London, the Conservative Party as a whole still needs to break through the auditions to be in with a chance of winning the public vote."

It is the first survey since Oona King was beaten by Mr Livingstone to the Labour nomination and suggests that he has scooped up almost all of her supporters.

However, only two thirds of people who say they would vote Labour in a general election say they would vote for Mr Livingstone, and 18 per cent would cross the political divide to vote for Conservative Mr Johnson.

The detailed findings suggest that turnouts in the suburbs will be crucial because Mr Livingstone is ahead by 43 to 32 in the inner city, while Mr Johnson is ahead by a massive 50 to 31 per cent in the outer suburbs.

On spending cuts, the survey found that men favour cuts more than women. Eight in 10 Tories support them, compared with only six in 10 Lib-Dems.

By two to one, Londoners want the east-west Crossrail scheme to be spared the axe. Some 42 per cent say the Government would not be justified in cancelling it.

How voters answered

What was your voting intention?
Conservative 36%
Labour 39%
Lib Dem 16%
Other 9%

(The outcome at the general election in London was: C 35%, L 37%, LD 22%, O 6%)

Who, of the following, would you be most likely to vote for as the next Mayor of London?
Boris Johnson 44%
Ken Livingstone 35%
Other 8%
None of these 13%

Do you think the coalition Government will last the full five-year term or not?
Yes 36%
No 40%
Don't know 25%

To what extent do you support or oppose the public sector spending cuts announced by the Government?
Strongly support 10%
Support 35%
Oppose 29%
Strongly oppose 14%
Don't know 12%

Given the spending cuts being implemented to balance the nation's books, do you think the coalition Government would be justified in cancelling Crossrail?
Yes it would 21%
No it wouldn't 42%
Don't know 37%