Detectives 'now believe Madeleine died by accident'

The three senior officers leading the inquiry are all but certain she died on the night she vanished.

They are 'leaning towards' the conclusion that she was not intentionally killed, according to police sources.

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Kate and Gerry McCann continue to hope their little girl is alive, 112 days after she disappeared.

But the detectives leading the investigation, Guilhermino Encarnacao, Goncal Amaral and Luis Neves, are apparently agreed on the fatal accident theory.

A source close to the investigation said: "They are virtually certain that Madeleine died that night, and there are several hypotheses to explain how she died - was it murder or was it an accident?

"They are leaning towards the accident hypothesis as the strongest."

Police refused to explain what evidence they have to make them think the girl is dead.

Detectives have stressed several times that neither the McCanns, both 39-year-old doctors, nor the friends they were holidaying with are suspects.

One possibility is a botched burglary, in which thieves panicked and tried to silence Madeleine. But Mr McCann said: "This is wild speculation.

"The police have always said to us they are taking all possible scenarios into consideration. For us, nothing has changed in the last two weeks.

"There is a very real possibility Madeleine is alive and we want the police to look for her."

However, the consultant cardiologist conceded that the statistical chances of finding his daughter are slim.

He said: "We have done a lot of research into missing children and the percentage of minors who have ever reappeared is very small.

"Obviously a very long time has passed, but we will do everything we can to make sure Madeleine does not become a statistic."

The couple yesterday gave interviews to Spain's three top- selling newspapers.

Mr McCann told reporters: "The possibility that Madeleine is alive and in Spain is real. There is no border guard and no one closed the border the night Madeleine disappeared."

Police are still awaiting the results of forensic tests on blood samples found in the family's holiday apartment at the Mark Warner Ocean Club.

In the meantime, the McCanns are considering whether to return home to Rothley, Leicestershire, with their two-year-old twins Sean and Amelie.

Yesterday they also launched the findings of research commissioned by the Find Madeleine campaign.

The survey of MEPs found that 97 per cent would back a Europeanwide sex offenders' register.