Economic prediction is not an exact science... balancing Britain's books is

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But it does say much about the state of the national coffers that they can appear so nonchalant. This was the first time since 1996 that the July figure had been in the red and was far worse than the most negative of City forecasts - minus £5 billion - and out of reach of the most positive of them - plus £5billion.

We're still allowed to be shocked, even if those in charge are not. Corporation tax receipts were down, showing the recession is hitting businesses hard and that last year's July revenues were boosted by BP, Shell and the other oil firms having to cough up more due to record crude prices.

More evidence of the depth of the downturn comes from income tax and VAT receipts as the Government fails to curb its outlay. Much more like this and the victor of the next election could be left with a debt approaching £1trillion.

While other countries are claiming their economies are recovering, Britain is lagging behind. There are signs of life in the housing market and retail but other sectors are suffering badly and the public purse is in a dreadful mess.

What the City scribblers will say is it just goes to show that economic prediction is not an exact science.

Alas, balancing the nation's books is, and right now they are skewed heavily in one direction.