Experts hopeful remaining hostages are alive

The handover of the remains of two of five British men kidnapped in Baghdad in 2007 suggests the remaining three are still alive, a respected military expert said.

Captain Doug Beattie, who recently retired from service with the Royal Irish Regiment, said the bodies were a "signal" to the British Government and the security company which employed the two dead captives.

The evidence would suggest "deep, deep negotiations" are ongoing behind the scenes, Mr Beattie, who served in Iraq and was later decorated for bravery in Afghanistan, added.

Security officers Jason Creswell and Jason Swindlehurst were confirmed dead yesterday, but the fate of the three others - IT consultant Peter Moore, from Lincoln, and two other guards named only as Alan, from Scotland, and Alec, from South Wales - is still unknown.

Mr Beattie, author of the hit book An Ordinary Soldier, said: "The release of these bodies is no coincidence - it suggests a very deliberate act on behalf of the captors.

"We must all be very careful not to endanger the lives of those still being held, but there is every reason to hope and believe they are still alive.

"There will be deep, deep negotiations going on."

With Peter Moore confirmed as not among the bodies, Mr Beattie said he believed the hostage-takers were targeting GardaWorld, the Canadian security firm which employed his guards.

With £500 per day, tax-free, up for grabs from private security firms, many are drawn to spending a year or so in places like Iraq, working as bodyguards or overseeing convoys.

Most of those who take up the offers are ex-soldiers, from the elite regiments of the armed forces, highly trained in looking after themselves and their charges.

They work for private security companies who hold contracts with either Iraqi businesses or government organisations.

Mr Beattie added: "The firm will be very mindful of the fact that they will be supporting the families of those who have died and will be considering whether they will be able to do that again if the other two security officers are killed.

"It would suggest there are monetary reasons for handing these bodies over and the Government does not give ransoms in these situations."

"We can only hope there could be the imminent release of the remaining three."

He said he sympathised with Mr Moore's father Graeme, who complained of a blackout of information from the Government, but added: "I feel sorry for both sides. There will be reasons the Government has to hold information back.

"Negotiations, particularly at the moment, will be critical."

Dr Sally Leivesley, managing director of NewRisk Limited and an expert on terrorism, said the kidnappers no longer have a reason for taking people captive.

She told BBC News: "The tension has relaxed so considerably and the soldiers are going off the street and Iraq is taking control of its own destiny.

"Hopefully there can be an understanding that there is no need to hold another three hostages, and that the Iraqi government will be able to look after the affairs of Iraq.

"In a way, the cause and the reason for taking these men hostage really has disappeared."

Dr Leivesley also said the families of the hostages have been "superb".

Hostage negotiator Dr James Alvarez, who has experience of dealing with kidnaps in Iraq, said the deaths of the two men was "a tragedy".

He said most kidnaps in the country are resolved within two or three months, many sooner.

"It's unusual for people in Iraq to be held for this long," he said.

"Statistically, the longer a kidnap goes on, the higher the chances of the people coming out alive."

He said the involvement of government officials, particularly Iraqi government officials, may have lengthened the negotiating process.

Dr Alvarez said it was not in the kidnappers' interests to kill their captives who were their "bargaining chips" and he suspected the other three men were still alive.

"It's my sincerest wish that it's so," he added.

Dr Alvarez said the kidnappers may have delayed revealing the two men's deaths to maintain the illusion that all five could still be released if a deal was struck.

"It's entirely possible that the hostages died from natural causes or something that was outside of their control," he added.

The way the men's bodies were released suggested it was not done as a threat to the lives of the other hostages, he said.

"The fact that they have handed them in, I suspect, is something."

Graeme Moore, the father of Peter Moore, one of the three British hostages in Iraq whose fate is still unknown, said he was angry at the Government's handling of the case and described Foreign Secretary David Miliband as a "total waste of space".

He told GMTV: "We got the message yesterday morning that (the bodies) had been identified and Peter wasn't one of them, which gives me and Peter's friends hope. But unfortunately it isn't good for the other two families."

Mr Moore criticised the Foreign Office for not doing enough to help the men.

"They haven't done anything. They should have been straight in directing negotiations right from the beginning.

"Unfortunately the way Gordon Brown and David Miliband have handled this case is bad news for the other two families.Miliband is a total waste of space."

He added: "We will keep pushing on for Peter. We will do right until the end; until either Peter is released or we get the worst news."