Four polls and a decision... Brown waits for verdict

The Prime Minister, who marked his 100th day in office today, was keeping up speculation by rushing out announcements on the NHS and Crossrail.

He is expected to make a decision on Sunday afternoon during a council of war with aides.

The first verdict of voters is due at 7pm tonight when a snap poll for Channel 4 News will reveal whether David Cameron achieved a bounce with his barnstorming Blackpool speech.

That will be followed by an ICM survey for tomorrow's Guardian, a Populus survey for Saturday's Times and a YouGov panel for the Telegraph and Sunday Times.

The polls will give the clearest indication yet of whether Mr Brown's recent lead of seven to 11 points has held firm and he is safe to call an election on November 1 or 8. A Conservative recovery could put his plans in jeopardy.

Labour MPs think the critical figure for calling an election is a lead of four points. Below that, they believe it becomes increasingly dangerous for Mr Brown. Bookmaker William Hill was today offering 2/7 that he will go ahead, and 5/2 against.

Mr Cameron unwittingly sparked the first poll on his party conference performance by mentioning two Facebook sites in his speech - one set up to support him and the other by opponents.

Both networks had a rush of new members after his speech - but the clear overnight winner was "Am I the only one who doesn't like David Cameron?" It had 955 members this morning - three times as many as before Mr Cameron's speech.

The supporters' network, "David Cameron is a hottie", was trailing with just 307 members, up from 74 yesterday.

WHAT THE PAPERS SAY

The Sun: "'Go ahead, Gordon - call that election," he said. A week ago with the Tories flat on their back, that taunt would have sounded preposterous. Today, it has the ring of confidence from a party ready for battle. The Sun's verdict? Mission Very Possible."

Peter Riddell, The Times: "The Tories have made a start and have reacted rapidly to the challenge of an early election. But they are primarily engaged in damage limitation for themselves and a spoiling operation on Labour. They are not yet really preparing for government."

The Daily Telegraph: "A conference that had threatened to descend into acrimony has been little short of a triumph... If confidence won elections, Mr Cameron would be home and dry."