Fractured Iraq 'on the brink of collapse'

A report published by the respected international relations think tank Chatham House, warns that the surge in US troop levels this year has failed to stem the growth in violence, which seems likely to "continue and intensify".

And it recommends a radical shift in U.S.-UK policies, including reaching out to Sunni insurgent groups which oppose Al Qaeda; bringing the movement led by Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr into the political process; and recognising the legitimacy of Kurdish demands for autonomy.

Although they might be "distinctly unpalatable" to Washington and London, the report's author, Dr Gareth Stansfield, warns that strategies of this kind are needed to prevent the collapse of Iraq.

His report, Accepting Realities in Iraq, describes the democraticallyelected government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki as "largely irrelevant" to political, security and economic life across large swathes of the country.

The country has fractured into regional power bases, where power rests in the hands of local sectarian, ethnic or tribal groups, he says.

Al Qaeda has developed "a very real presence" in the major cities of the centre and north of the country. Iraq suffers not from one but many civil wars and insurgencies, which pit communities and organisations against one another, the Baghdad government and the US-led multi-national forces.

Dr Stansfield, associate professor in Middle East Politics at the University of Exeter, writes that 2007 will be a "critical time" for Iraq, with things likely to get much worse before they improve.

"It is time for a full appraisal of the realities in Iraq," he says. "On current evidence these realities are very disturbing and it can no longer be assumed that Iraq will survive as a united entity.

"The four years since the removal of Saddam's regime have been deeply unsuccessful for the Multinational Force in Iraq and the new Iraqi government.

"Iraq's attempted transition from dictatorship to democracy has been harrowing and multifaceted violence appears likely to continue and intensify.

"It can be argued that Iraq is on the verge of being a failed state which faces the distinct possibility of collapse and fragmentation."

Despite US President George Bush's deployment of more than 20,000 additional troops earlier this year in the hope of making a speedy impact on security, overall fatality rates appear to have increased, says the report.