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Good news: 80 years of dry summers ahead - Bad news: we'll have 20 years of soggy ones first
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03 May 2008
Experts say our future summers are going to be up to 20 per cent drier.
The only catch is that we are going to have to put up with a couple of decades of extra soggy ones before things begin to start to look up.
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Climate change experts predict summers will be significantly drier by 2100 - but could be wetter than usual first.
The Met Office's Hadley Centre predicts that rising levels of carbon dioxide will lead to summer rainfall in northern Europe falling by between 5 and 20 per cent by the end of the century.
While winters will be wetter, water shortages and hosepipe bans could become a fact of life for our children and their families.
The effects of global warming on summer rainfall, however, are unlikely to become apparent for another 20 years or so.
Until around 2030, we can "look forward" to even more rain than usual - or, at best, typical miserable British summers.
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Torrential storms swept across parts of England this week
Similar research techniques have shown the effect of global warming on UK temperatures, with dangerous heatwaves "likely to be commonplace" by 2040.
The "rainfall forecast", which is still preliminary, comes a year after Britain's soggiest summer.
More rain fell in June, July and August than in any year since nationwide records began in 1914.
Dr Vicky Pope, head of climate change at the Hadley Centre, said: "The type of wet weather we saw last summer will become less frequent but when it happens the amount of rain will be higher."
This summer is forecast to be more familiar territory - that is, a mixture of sunshine and showers.
The Bank Holiday weekend, however, will contain more showers than sunshine. Met Office forecaster Dean Snowden said: "I don't think anywhere in the country is going to be able to dodge the rain during the Bank Holiday weekend. Everywhere is going to be wet."
Rain that sweeps in from the West today will cover the bulk of the country by tomorrow, with perhaps only Cornwall escaping the downpours.
Although temperatures could reach 20c in London - and just a few degrees lower elsewhere - the outlook is gloomy.
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The effects of global warming on summer rainfall are unlikely to become apparent for another 20 years
Mr Snowden said: "Some of the rain could be pretty heavy and quite nasty.
"It will be a pretty miserable Bank Holiday Sunday."
By Monday, the sun will have chased away the rain in the South-West, West and Wales.
"It will be wet in Yorkshire but probably not in Lancashire,' said Mr Snowden.
"It is not exactly the War of the Roses but Lancashire looks likely to enjoy the better of the weather on Bank Holiday Monday."
With temperatures predicted to reach close to 20c, residents of Devon and Cornwall may even be able to dust off their deck chairs.
Those deprived of sunshine this weekend can console themselves with the thought that the forecast for the rest of next week looks pretty good.
The rain will die out, and although it could be overcast on the East Coast, it will be dry and warm.
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