Gordon Brown expected to rule out early election

Downing Street would not immediately comment on reports that Prime Minister Gordon Brown had decided against an autumn general election.

A major poll of Labour marginals due out tomorrow will influence whether he risks his fledgling premiership on an autumn campaign.

The Prime Minister must judge whether he can still beat the Conservatives following their eye-catching pledge to scrap inheritance tax for nine million families.

Key allies have been pressing Mr Brown to take the plunge and call David Cameron's bluff by going to the country, in the hope of wiping out the Tories and securing a new five-year term.

But a raft of polls out yesterday suggest Mr Cameron has slashed Labour's lead on the back of a triumphant conference which saw his party set out traditional Tory proposals on tax, law and order and immigration.

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Labour's confidence has been shaken by signs that the pledge to restrict death duties has galvanised the battleground constituencies which Mr Cameron must win to defeat Mr Brown.

Its private polling suggests the position for Labour in the seats it must hold, in particular in the South and South East where property prices are soaring, is "bad".

One source said: "The impact the Tory inheritance tax offer is having in tight marginals is quite stark."

Some in Downing Street are arguing that Labour will not have enough time between now and November 1 to persuade voters that the Tory offer is unrealistic and economically reckless.

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Tomorrow the Prime Minister will study with care the findings of a mammoth study of 150 marginals - seats held by Labour with a small majority.

If it confirms Labour's own findings that the Tories are doing better than expected, Mr Brown is likely to tell his advisers that they have misjudged the mood and that he will not call an election.

He knows that his credbility could be holed below the waterline if he calls an election only to see himself returned on a majority smaller than the 66 seats won by Tony Blair in 2005.

Tory insiders say they are no longer afraid of an early contest and they are confident that public sentiment is swinging against Labour and Mr Brown, leaving them with an unexpected opportunity to win back power after a decade in opposition.

Mr Brown is said to be privately unhappy with the way he has been portrayed by the Tories as a 'calculating' politician who has manipulated events for electioneering purposes.

The Government confirmed yesterday that it has cleared the decks and lined up a string of major announcements ahead of what is being billed as Mr Brown's "Super Tuesday".

His long-awaited statement on Iraq will take place on Monday, followed by the three-year Comprehensive Spending Review and Pre-Budget Report on Tuesday, which had originally been planned for later in the month.

A timetable has been agreed which would allow the Prime Minister to unveil a package of tax cuts and spending boosts before going to the Palace.

The Queen has been warned to expect a request for the Dissolution of Parliament next week, and Mr Brown has made an appointment to meet her on Tuesday evening. However sources insisted it was a routine audience and did not mean an election announcement was more likely.

There were signs of alarm among Labour MPs in marginal seats, who risk being kicked out of office two years ahead of time.

Labour MP Des Turner, who has a 2,737 majority over the Tories in Brighton Kemptown, told BBC2's The Daily Politics: "Gordon should stick to the moral high ground, govern, deliver and go to the electorate at the proper time, which I don't think is now."

A member of Mr Brown's "Government of all the talents" announced yesterday that he was quitting the "big tent".

Tory MP Patrick Mercer, appointed by the Premier as an adviser on security in one of the shock "defections" of the summer, said he had finished work for Home Office Minister Lord West a month ahead of schedule.

But it will be seen as a snub to the Premier - after Mr Mercer was critical of his decision to "spin" the withdrawal of 1,000 troops from Iraq.

He accused Mr Brown of "double counting" in his announcement that 1,000 troops would be coming home from Iraq before Christmas.

It quickly emerged that nearly 300 are already back.

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Chancellor hints at a slowdown

Labour's ability to promise vote-winning tax cuts is in doubt amid fears that Britain is on the brink of economic gloom.

Chancellor Alistair Darling hinted yesterday that he planned to slash Government forecasts for growth in 2008.

He said there would "undoubtedly be an effect" on the UK of the global credit crisis which has buffeted western economies.

Mr Darling will be forced to reduce growth forecasts from between 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent to about 2 per cent, senior analysts predicted.

His problem is that lower growth means the Government would raise less in taxation because of lower spending and company profits.

Less revenue flowing into the Treasury would "severely limit" the Prime Minister's ability to fund a tax giveaway for voters if he decided to call a snap election.

Eye-catching cuts to inheritance tax or stamp duty would have to be clawed back by low-profile stealth taxes elsewhere, said economists.

Mr Darling's forecast will come in the pre-Budget report which he delivers on Tuesday alongside the Comprehensive Spending Review.