Home Secretary's warning that credit crunch will send crime soaring is 'blindingly obvious', says minister

Tony McNulty said it was clear that crime 'may well go up' in the UK during the country's economic slowdown.

He told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: 'We've never made any pretence that the economy and crime are inextricably linked.

'This really is a statement of the blindingly obvious - people would be astonished if the Home Office weren't looking at how the relationship between crime and the criminal justice system and the economy interact and relate with each other.'

Tony McNulty MP said it was clear that crime 'may well go up', in response to the leaked document from Jacqui Smith (right)

He added: 'What the letter also says, albeit a draft, is that we are better placed now than we were with equivalent problems in the '70s and '90s to tackle them.'

It was 'perfectly normal' for Home Secretary Jacqui Smith to keep the Prime Minister informed of the possible effects of the slowdown, Mr McNulty said.

'Previous experience dictates that, to an extent, when we do have a slowdown in the economy, some aspects of crime may go up,' he said.

The leaked document predicted sharp rises in burglary and violence - but less funding to put police on the streets to meet the tide of lawlessness.

The 12-page document also warns that support for the far Right will increase as unemployment bites, meaning minority groups such as Muslims will be more likely to suffer racism, pushing them towards radicalisation and even terrorism.

The leak will infuriate the Prime Minister, who is hoping to launch his economic rescue plan this month.

The Government has been insisting it is well placed to weather the economic storm, and that the public should not panic.

But in an interview at the weekend, Chancellor Alistair Darling warned the current economic conditions are 'arguably the worst they've been in 60 years', and will get worse.

Now opponents say the mask has slipped even further with the revelations by Miss Smith's Home Office of what the terrible consequences will be for ordinary families.

It has even set up an 'economic conditions' unit to help ministers cope.

The letter says: 'We can expect additional pressures on acquisitive crime, police finances (and officer numbers), citizen attitudes to migration, and pressure on our fee income.'

Damian Green, the Tory immigration spokesman, said: 'This rips the veil off the complacent comments we have been getting from Home Office ministers about how their performance is improving.

'It is clear that in almost all areas of the Home Office things are going to get worse.'

The letter, drawn up by the Home Office for Miss Smith to send to Mr Brown, appears to be a direct response to a Downing Street request.

In mid-July, Number Ten is believed to have asked a number of major departments how their responsibilities would be affected by the credit crunch - and what they were doing to prepare.

The Home Office replied by highlighting a string of potentially alarming consequences, most of which are inter-linked.

On crime, it suggests similar economic conditions in the past led to a surge of up to 19 per cent in violence.

Referring to offences such as burglary and theft, the letter adds: 'Our modelling indicates that an economic downturn would place significant upward pressure on acquisitive crime and therefore overall crime figures.

'Yet the letter indicates there will be fewer police on the streets to cope.

'Cost pressures, such as high fuel costs and rising salaries, might leave forces facing financial pressures and require difficult decisions over officer numbers and priorities.'

The picture on border control is equally bleak.

The draft, which has yet to be sent to Mr Brown, says: 'In an economic downturn we expect a significant increase in smuggling in particular of fuel, alcohol and tobacco, but also across a wider range of goods.

'An economic downturn could mean an increase in illegal working if migrants' opportunities for legal working decline and employers are seeking to save costs.'

But, as with police, there might be fewer border guards to cope.

Other sections add: 'There is also a risk of a downturn increasing the appeal of far-Right extremism and racism, which presents a threat as there is evidence that grievances based on experiencing racism is one of the factors that can lead to people becoming terrorists.'

A Home Office spokesman said: 'We do not normally comment on leaked documents but this is draft advice that the Home Secretary has not cleared and has not been sent to Number 10.

'It is, however, appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas.

'We are confident that we have the right systems in place to respond flexibly to changing economic needs, and are well positioned to face future challenges.

'We have record numbers of police officers and commensurate supporting investments such as police and community support officers.

'In the last 11 years crime has fallen by 39 per cent while violent crime is down 40 per cent.'