Labour Party heads for meltdown local elections

An authoritative analysis last night suggested the party will suffer its worst-ever defeat at the polls.

Labour-controlled councils could be almost entirely wiped out in southern England, outside London.

Swathes of the South-East, the Home Counties and the West Country look set to become no-go areas for the party, just as much of the urban North is for the Conservatives.

Analysts at the University of Plymouth predict a loss of 500 Labour councillors. That would take the party's tally to 5,600, the lowest for 35 years, and nearly half its peak of 10,900 some 11 years ago.

They claim the party will achieve just 24 per cent of the vote, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberal Democrats and the Tories well ahead on 38 per cent.

Its previous nadir was in 1982 when Michael Foot was leader and Margaret Thatcher was riding a wave of popularity thanks to the Falklands War. Then the party scored 29 per cent.

The Conservatives even managed 25 per cent in the 1995 elections at the height of their unpopularity under John Major.

The share of the vote forecast in the analysis for the BBC would wipe out 500 Labour council seats, with the Tories gaining 330 and the Liberal Democrats 110.

Though local election results are rarely mirrored at a General Election, the vote share would give David Cameron a Commons majority of six seats.

In elections to the Scottish Parliament, also taking place on Thursday, the Scottish Nationalist Party looks likely to take over as the largest party.

Some Labour MPs want the Prime Minister to make a lastditch attempt to stem the tide by announcing his departure before voters go to the polls.

Tony Blair has admitted publicly that he may have become an electoral liability whose unpopularity will fuel protest votes.

He is expected to fire the starting gun for a leadership contest by announcing on May 9 that he intends to leave Downing Street in late June.

That is the day after power sharing is due to resume in Northern Ireland, seen as one of the most significant achievements of Mr Blair's time in office.

He is due to celebrate ten years in No 10 on Wednesday, although the cash-for-peerages scandal and Labour's electoral woes have left the mood there "desperate", according to Whitehall sources.

The Prime Minister is said to be reconciled to the fact that he will not leave office on a high, despite hopes from aides that he would go with the "crowds wanting more".

In Poland yesterday for talks on the EU constitution, Mr Blair suggested there was no chance he would change his plans and set out plans for his departure next week.

"I never discuss these issues, but I wouldn't hold your breath," he said.

His official spokesman described claims that the Prime Minister would make an announcement before polling day as "wrong".

The May 3 poll is the largest set of local elections in four years, covering 10,456 councillors in 311 authorities. They include all 36 metropolitan districts, where a third of seats are being contested; 231 district councils and 44 unitary authorities.

The Tories are hoping to notch up a vote share of 40 per cent or more, the threshold needed to give Mr Cameron a strong chance of winning the next General Election.

Labour could lose control of several of its last remaining town halls in the South, including Plymouth, Brighton & Hove, Dartford and Gravesham in Kent.