London faces 'forest fire' of rampaging measles

They believe immunisation levels are at such a low that a serious outbreak would be unstoppable.

It is the strongest warning yet that measles could cause deaths if more children across the city are not vaccinated.

More than 150 have already fallen ill in Hackney, in the worst measles outbreak of recent years. Last week the Health Protection Agency urged parents to vaccinate their children before the return to school. But a report from the London Assembly today says the city will still be at risk of an imminent epidemic.

Only 52 per cent of children in the capital have been given full protection against measles, mumps and rubella, with the figure plunging to one in three in Greenwich. The average for England is 74 per cent.

"London's immunisation rates are so low that the chance of a serious outbreak of measles is worryingly high," the study states. "It is frightening to think about what could happen."

Experts from the Health Protection Agency told of their concerns in a meeting with the London Assembly investigation team. The report concludes: "In the case of measles, which is particularly contagious, the Health Protection Agency believes the situation is now similar to a potential forest fire.

"If someone was to light a match, by introducing measles for example, the infection could spread so rapidly that it would be impossible to stop a serious outbreak developing."

Doctors say conditions in the city are "perfect" for a dangerous epidemic. If 1,000 children were to fall ill, they would expect one to die. Last year a 13-year-old boy in Rochdale became the first to die of the illness in 14 years.

Uptake of the triple MMR vaccine, for measles, mumps and rubella, fell dramatically after a now-discredited report linked it to autism in 1998. Vaccination rates are increasing steadily across Britain, but London is bucking the trend, with uptake of the second booster vaccination declining. About 77 per cent of children have had the first dose - compared with 87 per cent nationally - with only 57 per cent receiving two doses. This is far below the 92-95 per cent cover needed to prevent an outbreak.

Today's report, by the Assembly's health and public services committee, follows a similar study four years ago that called for urgent action. It found a city-wide catch-up programme had vaccinated 44,000 extra children but has not gone far enough.

Assembly member Elizabeth Howlett, who led the new investigation, said problems included:

10 per cent of GP surgeries opting out of vaccination programmes under a new contract, and health visitors giving wrong advice about when jabs are needed.

Parents looking up false information about MMR and other jabs on the internet.

Poor data systems that stop health bosses identifying which children need vaccinating, and fear of vaccinations.

Ms Howlett called on health

bosses to create "immunisation champions" to fight public ignorance and monitor primary care trusts on vaccinations.

The report says public health doctors should set up more ad-hoc vaccination stations. It also reported that the number of children getting booster jabs for diphtheria, tetanus and polio was falling in London, a reversal of the national trend.