Comment: Ken may be trailing but don't write him off

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Once again, the latest YouGov poll gives Boris Johnson a commanding lead - 13 points, this time. And once again it is likely to spark a row. Polling is the dark art of the anorak's anorak. In private, pollsters whisper darkly about weaknesses in their competitors' methods - phone-based versus internet-based polling and weightings to be given to each age group. Last week, Ken Livingstone's staff took the unusual step of criticising YouGov's polling. Out of sight, there was an outbreak of war between different polling companies. Two things should be borne in mind.

First, whatever the results in opinion polls, things can change. Over three weeks remain before real votes are cast and a significant shift of votes is still possible. Second, if a major discrepancy remains between the polling conducted by different companies, we will only have to wait till 2 May to find out which was correct. YouGov's five major polls (the first for ITN, the remainder for the Evening Standard), showed a lead among "first preference" votes of one per cent for Livingstone in mid-December last year, then leads for Johnson of 5 per cent (mid-February), 12 per cent (mid-March), 10 per cent (end of March) and 13 per cent (today's poll). Two other polls have been undertaken. MORI, for the Labour Party, showed Ken four per cent ahead on first preferences in early February. ICM, in last Thursday's Guardian, showed Boris two per cent ahead on first preference votes, though if "certainty to vote" is factored in he was further ahead. Taking all these polls into account, it would appear Boris Johnson is ahead of Ken Livingstone, but by a "first preference" total that could range significantly. It is unlikely that the Johnson lead is under five per cent and it could be much higher. Both the Conservatives and Labour will prefer to see a relatively small number because it convinces their activists to work hard. Today's YouGov poll confirms other recent ones that suggest there is a modest movement of "second preference" votes away from Johnson to Livingstone. If the Labour Party has polling that shows Ken ahead, it would be interesting to see it. The details of both YouGov and ICM's polls suggest Livingstone is seen as competent, but nevertheless the electorate wants a change. To counter this, the Mayor needs to make clear how he would be different in a third term. He would need to be a kinder version of his recent self. He needs one or two striking new policies. ICM's work suggests he needs to show how he would run a clean administration. And he should also make clear he would not stay around forever. Today's poll shows Ken trailing. But he may yet transform his campaign. Never write him off.

Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the LSE.