Ken must shrug off Labour's problems

Boris Johnson's lead on first preference votes is fractionally up (from six to seven per cent), though there is evidence of a shift of Liberal Democrat second preference voting from Johnson to Livingstone. This pollster's run of results in recent weeks has implied a Tory lead of between five and 10 per cent.

Other polling organisations continue to suggest a much closer race.

The Sunday Times yesterday published a MRUK Cello poll which gave Livingstone a lead of one per cent on first preferences and a dead heat when the second votes are added. On the other hand, the Labour Party and its allies have not produced any new polling since last week, which implies they do not have good news to publicise.

YouGov suggests that Johnson will be more effective at getting out the Tory core vote than Livingstone will be the Labour one. The Mayor is facing two problems. First, the Labour Party nationally is in a dire condition. Second, all the polling suggests people want a change.

Mr Livingstone is seen as better at running services, yet many people who believe this go on to say they will not vote for him.

In the final full week of the contest, Labour needs to project a "Ken Livingstone isn't Gordon Brown" message. He also needs to make it clear that a third term would be different from the first two.

For example, a tougher approach to the Tube unions should be accompanied by evidence of how the Tube's industrial relations are to be improved in the long-term.

For their part, the Conservatives will still not tell us who, precisely, will run Boris Johnson's London. This is a profound weakness for a candidate who remains vulnerable to a battery of attacks on his competence to govern. If Johnson is to run the capital as "chairman of the board", he really should tell us who the executives will be.

A final thought. The opinion polling published during this year's mayoral election has produced a sufficiently wide range of results to suggest that the pollsters probably need to review their techniques - at least in so far as they are used for contests to elect a single individual such as a mayor.

If there is no sudden convergence of polls to a broadly consistent position close to the actual result, one or more companies will have some explaining to do.

Tony Travers is director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics.