Major shake-up at Assembly may give Lib-Dems first seat

Of the two most likely to see a defeat, one is likely to fall to the Liberal Democrats, giving them their first Assembly constituency seat in the history of the GLA.The other is predicted to swing from Labour to the Conservatives.

Two more could also move with both Labour and the Lib-Dems the possible winners.

Tony Travers, director of the Greater London Group at the London School of Economics said: "The face of the London Assembly could well change and you have to remember that last time only one of the seats changed hands.

"This time we are looking at four possibilities but only predicting the actual change of two of the seats."

The Assembly is made up of 14 "super constituency" members, voted for by name, and 11 London-wide members appointed from party lists after voters cast a "top-up" vote for a party on a third ballot paper.

The most vulnerable constituency, the South West seat, is currently held by Tory Tony Arbour but the London Communications Agency predicts it could change hands with Lib-Dem Stephen Knight turning around a majority of 4,067.

"The super constituency includes Hounslow, Kingston and Richmond and is one of only two seats held by the Tories despite them not having a single parliamentary seat in the area," said Mr Travers.

The second seat predicted to change hands is Enfield and Haringey, which Joanne McCartney holds with a slim Labour majority of 1,574. But the recent spate of teenage murders and subsequent increase in the fear of crime is likely to push it into the hands of the Conservatives.

Tory candidate Matthew Laban said: "We need more police on the streets so that people feel safe going about their business. However what we get from this Labour mayor and the Metropolitan police is plans for the closure of Southgate police station."

Mr Laban added: "The single most important issue among the constituents is crime."

But even if Mr Laban wins the seat, Ms McCartney is likely to remain as an Assembly member thanks to the top-up list which allocates further seats.

She said: "The murders have been an issue but we have to remember they are in a small section of community and our research has found that residents do feel safe and are happy with the introduction of safer neighbourhood teams."

The other seats under question, according to Mr Travers, include the Conservative-controlled Brent & Harrow which could swing to Labour and Labour-controlled Lambeth & Southwark where an all-female battle could see it taken by the Lib-Dems.

Even with the predicted changes, the Tories will still hold nine directly-elected seats, Labour will have a reduced total of four and the Lib Dems will have one.

But the 11 London wide seats in the Assembly may be subject to a more dramatic change.

It is thought the BNP will take their first seat, the Green Party will take three, leaving the the Lib Dems with four and Labour three.