'Mid-East crisis in 2012' as rivals battle for power

Thirteen co-ordinated blasts yesterday left 68 people dead and nearly 200 injured. Today, Iraq's Sunni vice-president Tariq al-Hashemi said Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki was to blame for the surge in violence because he was ignoring security issues.

Eyes are firmly on the growing influence of Iran- which some analysts believe is now in a war of proxies with Saudi Arabia, particularly in Iraq and Syria. There are also indications Iran and the US are involved in covert operations against each other. It is now thought a huge blast at a weapons facility near Tehran in November may have been a US or Israeli-sponsored operation. It killed 17, including Brigadier General Hassan Moghaddam, head of Iran's ballistic missile programme.

Recently President Barack Obama has requested Tehran send back Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, an American citizen arrested on spying charges, and a PQ-170 surveillance drone downed over Iran. In October two men, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, were charged with attempting to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir. Arbabsiar, of dual US and Iranian citizenship, is in custody.

Shakuri is suspected of being a senior officer in Iran's elite al Quds force. According to the charge, they tried to hire a gunman from the Mexican Los Zetas drug cartel for the hit - but he turned out to be an operative of the US Drug Enforcement Agency.

Analysts warn a crisis point could come this summer. The latest report on Iran's nuclear ambitions by the Interna-tional Atomic Energy Authority stated there is now a "credible case ... Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device", and that this is continuing.

This week US defence secretary Leon Panetta, referring to Iran testing a nuclear missile, said he thought "sometime this year they would be able to do it". He added it was still "a red line" that Iran should not acquire such weaponry. Tehran has said it will let IAEA inspectors back in, possibly next month.

Israel has warned time is running out and is advocating military action next year if needed. There are fears it will go it alone with an aerial strike against nu-clear sites. For Britain this is worrying as it may happen during the Olympics.