'Mild and dry' winter ahead says Met office

According to the latest long range weather forecast issued by the Met Office, Britain is heading for yet another mild and dry season.

While it will be "noticeably colder" than the mild winter of 2006-07, forecasters say the chances of a prolonged cold snap are low.

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If that sounds confusing, spare a thought for the plants confused by long wet summer and unseasonably warm autumn.

Rhododendrons have been spotted blooming seven months early in Somerset.

Horticulturalist Anne Swithinbank, a regular on Radio 4's Gardeners' Question Time, says it's all down to the "pretty mad weather".

"It isn't unheard of for a rhododendron to flower a bit prematurely but this is very unusual," she said.

The chances are that the usual April flowering will still be spectacular.

Guy Barter, from the Royal Horticultural Society, said the warm wet weather has provided the rhododendrons with enough nutrients for this extra bloom.

"The weather we've had has ruined people's holidays and caused real havoc and destruction with all the floods, but it has also provided some fantastic growing conditions.

"It is my guess that they will probably still flower in April as well, there is just such a wealth of nutrients in the soil that they have managed an extra appearance."

But who knows what the plants - and gardeners - will make of another mild winter.

According to the Met Office records, snowy winters are becoming a rarity particularly in the south of England.

Even when there are snow showers, the ground is rarely covered for more than a couple of days.

"Most of the winters in the last 10 years have been relatively mild, with last winter being the second warmest on record," said Met Office spokesman, Rob Varley.

"Although we have predicted the likelihood of another mild winter, we expect it to be noticeably colder than last year."

Although any long range weather forecasts has to be taken with a pinch of salt, predictions for winter months are usually right two out of three times.

According to the Met Office December, January and February will be warmer than the average winter temperature of 3.7C - but will get less than the average 332mm of rain and snow.

Last winter's average temperature, in contrast, was an unseasonal 5.6C, while the UK had 437mm of rain, hail, sleet and snow.

A spokesman for the Met Office stressed that the forecast was for the season as a whole - and could not give details of individual weeks or even months.

"Forecasting skill varies across different forecast elements, and from season to season. The skill of our winter forecasts is greater than that of our summer forecast and the skill for temperature is better than for rainfall," he added.

"The long range forecast for the summer spoke of a warmer summer than usual. In fact, temperatures were close to average and what people remember is the rainfall. The forecast said there was no evidence to support a prediction or a wetter or drier than normal summer."

The winter forecast is based on the behaviour of a weather phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation - which describes the pattern of high and low pressure above Iceland and the Azores.

In years when air pressure is high above Iceland, Britain tends to get colder winds blown from the north. When it is higher over the Azores, the UK basks in warmer air.

The worst winter in living memory struck in 1962-63 when much of the UK was covered by snow continuously from Boxing Day to March. The average temperature for the winter was below freezing, while some parts of the country experienced nightly frosts.