Mr Brown has two years to prove himself

And yet . . . the polls are more volatile and the electorate more capricious than at any time in the modern era. Only last September, the same pundits who now write Mr Brown's political obituary were dismissing David Cameron with the same certainty. With perhaps two years to go before an election, nothing is certain.

Anniversary: Gordon Brown

Mr Cameron, it must be said, has had a deeply impressive nine months, but the Tories still have much work to do in explaining their policies and could yet be damaged by allegations of sleaze (isn't it time their party chairman was asked to stand down and clear her name?).

As for the Liberals, after another dismal night in Henley  -  the kind of constituency they used to perform well in  -  their future under Nick Clegg looks bleak.

To be fair to Mr Brown he has had some successes. The venality, greed and corruption of the cash-for-honours Blair years are by and large behind us, together with the Lord Levys and Campbells who brought such shame to British public life.

Cabinet government has been restored and while spinning continues our hope is that there is a higher moral purpose at Number 10.

But these modest achievements have been swamped by a succession of disasters. First there was the almost terminal miscalculation in first talking up, and then ducking, an election.

Then came the dither over Northern Rock. Ditching the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was another black day.

Finally, there was the 10p tax rate debacle, where he took money from the poorest to pay an electoral bribe, and then denied having done so.

But despite these avoidable errors, it's still likely that Mr Brown will remain Prime Minister for the next two years.

Certainly, none of the political pygmies currently being touted as possible replacements would be an improvement.

So for what looks likely to be a testing time in our nation's history, Mr Brown will continue to chart Britain's course.

As a snapshot of Britain, today's Mail reports on the oil price at a new high . . . the savings ratio at an historic low . . . the traditional family threatened by poverty . . . and our police in turmoil over race.

But the greatest worry is that many people  -  and especially those on fixed incomes  -  are beginning to suffer real financial pain.

If Mr Brown, who has recently been performing with more assurance in the Commons, were to focus on tackling these grave issues rather than worrying about the polls, it's possible his fortunes and, more pertinently, Britain's, might improve.

The bail betrayal
A young mother stabbed to death by a crack cocaine addict with a conviction for stabbing who days earlier had been arrested on suspicion of rape  -  and promptly released on bail.

Stacey Westbury was another victim of a system that allows criminals to roam the streets because the jails are full.

Two murders a day  -  nearly one in five  -  are committed by those on bail. Their victims have been betrayed by a Government that passed laws to send more people to jail, but wouldn't spend the money on new prisons.

The result  -  overcrowded prisons and judges forced to release those who would have been kept inside until their trial.

This is a scandal that cannot be allowed to continue.