No Iraq pull-out till at least next year, Brown tells MPs

The Prime Minister yesterday ruled out a timetable for withdrawing troops from Iraq.

He told MPs it would be next year at the earliest that the number could be significantly reduced from the current 4,100.

In a Commons statement following his weekend visit to the country, Gordon Brown said withdrawal would depend on progress in four areas: the training of Iraqi troops, economic reconstruction, successful regional elections later this year, and a final handover of Basra airport.

But he spoke of a 'fundamental change of mission' in 2009 if those conditions were met.

Five years after the American-led invasion that led to the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Mr Brown's assessment appeared designed to lower expectations of an imminent pullout.

The Ministry of Defence will announce plans for the next rotation of troops in the autumn, when a decision could be taken not to replace some of those brought home.

The cautious approach suggested Mr Brown is wary of repeating his optimistic projections for withdrawals last year that had to be revised when violence flared up in Basra.

Last year he talked of reducing the British presence to 2,500 by last spring, only to come under intense pressure from the White House and military leaders to put off a withdrawal.

Speaking on the day the Commons rose for the summer recess, Mr Brown praised 'marked improvements' in the security situation with incidents of indirect fire on British troops down from 200 a month to an average of less than five a month since April.

'Just as last year we moved from combat to "overwatch", we would expect a further fundamental change of mission in the first months of 2009 as we make the transition to a long-term bilateral partnership with Iraq,' he said.

'I believe it is right that having successfully trained and mentored large numbers of the Iraqi forces  -  and having successfully worked with the Iraqis on a new economic development strategy  -  we complete the key tasks we have agreed with the Iraqi Government.'

He also took the opportunity to call for the immediate release of British hostages held for more than a year in Iraq.

Tory leader David Cameron warned him not to announce troop reductions prematurely, adding: 'These are not abstract numbers, these are not abstract announcements, these are people with families and responsibilities who are already coping with the consequence of overstretch and they deserve the very best treatment, not spinning over numbers and announcements.' 

Death toll: 176 British service men and women have been killed in Iraq since the conflict began in 2003

Mr Cameron praised the 'incredible job' carried out in 'difficult circumstances by British troops, but he said he would judge the prime minister by his action, not his words.

While everyone wanted withdrawal as soon as possible, 'we shouldn't make premature announcements about troop withdrawals which cannot then be delivered', he said.

Mr Brown's caution was endorsed by the Commons Defence Select Committee which said in a report that the security situation in the country had been 'transformed'.

But it concluded that UK training of Iraqi forces in Basra must be a 'medium-to-long-term project'.

The committee suggested Britain should continue to maintain a sizeable training presence as a way of remaining an influential player in a country that is potentially one of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East.

The report praised an anti-militia operation, largely carried out by the Iraqi Security Forces with British and U.S. support for producing a 'seismic shift' in the balance of power in Basra.

Training that a year ago had to be carried out at the British base because the situation outside was too dangerous was now in the hands of British teams stationed with Iraqi 'parent' units around the region.