OWEN MATTHEWS: So what price will Georgian President Saakashvili pay?

After his catastrophic effort to gain control over the breakaway republic of South Ossetia, Saakashvili is now taking stock of the consequences.

Russian tanks are now rumbling down Georgian streets and the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says nearly 100,000 people have been uprooted.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili delivers a speech from the steps of the parliament building. It now remains to see what the future holds for the him and his country

The country's military has been swept aside, along with telephone exchanges and other key infrastructure. Georgia's economy, which had been growing by between five and eight per cent a year since Saakashvili came to power in 2003, has been dealt a crippling blow.

To hear Saakashvili's supporters tell it, Moscow has been systematically trying to sabotage Georgia, and its young president, ever since he came to power.

But Saakashvili has been less than tactful in his dealings with Moscow. His passionate pro-Americanism, for one, has been deeply irritating for the Kremlin.

He accepted U.S. advisers to train his army, dressed his troops in Nato fatigues and sent nearly 2,000 troops to fight alongside the Americans in Iraq.

More dangerously for Russia, Saakashvili has also tried to dilute Moscow's influence by forming GUAM, essentially an anti-Russian club formed of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova.

Now, however, he has taken a step too far. Tactlessness hardly counts as a justification for a full-scale invasion. But last week, Saakashvili gave the Russians exactly the excuse they had been waiting for when he ordered Georgian troops into South Ossetia.

By Saakashvili's account, Russia had been building up troops in the region for months. No matter - Saakashvili allowed himself to be provoked into a self-defeating act of aggression which may prove to be his downfall.

A Russian Uragan multiple-rocket-launch system moves on its way to Tskhinvali, the capital of Georgia's breakaway republic of South Ossetia

He also claimed yesterday that the Russians intended to 'take over Georgia' in order to 'control energy routes from Central Asia and the Caspian'.

That is absurd. Even at its most arrogant, the Kremlin would never believe that international opinion would allow them to get away with the brazen annexation of a neighbour.

But at the same time, Saakashvili was right about one thing: It's clear that Russia's goal is to get rid of Georgia's troublesome president. 'The best thing would be for him to resign,' Russian Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

Saakashvili himself will doubtless enjoy a period  of popularity while his country is occupied by Russia. But that may prove short-lived. Many Georgians are deeply resentful that the West did so little to help them and also that Saakashvili brought such a disastrous war on their heads.

Europe and America are also in a quandary. If they abandon their poster boy to his fate, there's little chance that they will ever again be able to attract allies in the former Soviet Union.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, left, looks on as Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili addresses the media

The Georgian president has been one of the West's most enthusiastic cheerleaders.

He's a moderniser, an energetic American-trained lawyer who admires democracy and dreams of joining Western clubs such as the European Union and Nato. This means it's impossible for the West to now abandon him without losing face terribly.

But with Russia playing a key role in supplying European energy, Europe simply doesn't have the stomach for a fight. In private, European diplomats are dismayed at Russia's new-found aggressiveness, but also furious at Saakashvili for having let events get out of hand.

There will be a certain amount of hard words directed at Moscow, and doubtless a cooling of relations between Russia and the U.S. and EU. But ultimately there is precious little Saakashvili's erstwhile allies can do to make the Russians leave Georgian soil without risking World War Three.

Saakashvili persuaded Georgians that the West, not Moscow, was their best friend. But that friend has been found powerless to save Georgia from its old adversary. Come the next elections, Georgians may well back someone with a more pragmatic line to Russia, abandoning Saakashvili's dreams of a Western alliance altogether.