Poles may swing it for Boris

More than 180,000 extra European Union citizens have registered to vote this year than at the last poll in 2004.

At that election the difference between Mr Livingstone and his Tory rival Steve Norriswas just 171,000 votes, indicating that the extra electors could decide the vote this time.

London government expert Tony Travers predicted today that many of the new migrants could vote for Conservative candidate Boris Johnson or Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick. "I don't think any of the political parties could or should assume that recent migrants will just vote Labour as straightforwardly as earlier immigrants did," he said.

"It's conceivable that there are many more votes up for grabs for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats than there would have been traditionally."

London Elects, the body that oversees London elections, has launched a campaign to get people from the eight eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 to register for a vote.

Almost 60,000 Poles have already signed up, although the figure is likely to end up being nearer 85,000.

The 150,000-strong Polish community in London is a mix of war veterans, political exiles, later arrivals and recent EU migrants.

Wiktor Moszczynski of the Federation of Poles in Great Britain said: "The Polish vote could actually be crucial to the mayoral election.

"I don't think Ken is the automatic choice for Poles in London. Among the older community, which is about 20,000 voters, the trend might be to go towards the Conservatives because of the old anti-Communist links.

"If the younger Poles come out and vote - and the election could just pass them by - they may remember it was a Labour government which opened the border for them to come here."

He said members of the established Polish community would vote on traditional issues such as council tax, while younger voters - many with menial jobs - would be more concerned about the Mayor's plan for a London Living wage, a minimum salary weighted to cover the higher cost of living in the capital.

Mr Livingstone, a veteran campaigner, already has one eye on the Polish vote. He has organised a party for Poles at City Hall and is promising a celebration of Polish culture in Trafalgar Square.

Mr Johnson claims he is reluctant to play to any one particular group but he is due to meet representatives of the Polish community next month.

"Whether you have been in our fantastic city for six months or six years, one thing is for certain - we all face the same problems," he said.

"Londoners are suffering with crime and incivility on our streets, a secondrate transport system and poor housing. For a first-rate city, we can do better."

Mr Paddick is being interviewed by the Polish media and plans to meet members of the London community.