Prison total 'to hit 100,000' and swamp new jails

The projected 25 per cent rise casts doubt over Government plans to boost jail capacity.

Ministers want to be able to house 91,000 inmates by 2012.

Yet, if current sentencing trends continue, 95,600 would be in prison two years after that date.

The Ministry of Justice says the figure for 2014 could be as high 101,900. The low estimate is 88,800.

The startling predictions suggest overcrowding will continue and may even worsen.

Already, ministers have released many criminals early under emergency measures announced in June.

Justice Secretary Jack Straw predicted 1,000 would be let go every month but figures for July reveal the true figure to be at least twice as large.

Official figures show that 2,131 inmates were freed early between July 6 and July 31, bringing the total since the start of the scheme to 3,832.

Those released include 703 inmates convicted of violence, 78 robbers and 359 burglars.

A sex offender who was released by mistake was recalled to jail.

Prison authorities have tried to recall 125 other prisoners since the scheme began but 43 are on the run after breaching their end of custody licence.

Criminals set free early have committed 56 further offences.

Prisoner numbers have leapt from 60,000 to more than 80,000 under Labour.

Critics accused the Government of incompetence in failing to heed years of warnings about a capacity crisis in jails.

Tory justice spokesman Nick Herbert said: "Offenders are being released on to our streets at a far greater rate than the Government admitted.

"They include hundreds of violent criminals and many who have immediately gone on to commit new offences - all a direct result of the Government's incompetence in ignoring warnings of prison numbers.

"Early release is further under-mining public confidence in the criminal justice system.

"It must be halted immediately and emergency secure accommodation provided instead."

Mr Herbert said the planned prison expansion programme was insufficient, adding: "The jails will be back at bursting point within the next four years.

"Ministers cannot go on ignoring these warnings, and a prison system cannot run properly at capacity.

"The Government must now face up to its responsibilities by building more modern prisons."

A Ministry of Justice spokesman said: "Protecting the public is our first priority.

"End of custody licence is a temporary measure to ensure we have enough spaces for those serious and violent offenders who have been sent to prison.

"All those released 18 days early are subject to a stringent recall process should they breach the conditions of their licence.

"We are building 9,500 prison spaces in the next five years - the largest prison building programme ever in the UK."

Ministers were in talks with prison union leaders yesterday to try to avoid further strike action over pay and conditions.