Snap election 'more and more likely' says former transport minister

Former transport minister Stephen Ladyman said Gordon Brown would be "tempted" by a run of good poll results.

At the weekend, a YouGov poll gave Mr Brown a 10-point lead over the Tories, the biggest advantage since before the Iraq War.

The Sunday Times-commissioned survey put the governing party up two at 42 per cent while the Opposition slumped one to 32 per cent amid murmurings over David Cameron's leadership.

The Prime Minister's extended honeymoon also resulted in another healthy lead in an ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror, which put Labour on 39 per cent to the Conservatives' 33 per cent.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's The World at One, Mr Ladyman said the Prime Minister would want to make sure they could hold marginal constituencies outside the Labour heartlands.

Mr Ladyman said: "He and I have had several conversations about this, in particular he is very concerned about marginal seats in south-east England because he wants his Government to represent the whole country, north, south, east and west.

"So when he does hold an election its important to win all the marginal seats in the south-east, where we have more marginal Labour seats than any other part of the country."

Mr Ladyman, who defends a tiny 664 majority in South Thanet, said Mr Brown will only go to the country if he thinks seats like his can be won.

He said the opinion poll findings were "bound to tempt" the Prime Minister to hold an early election. Mr Ladyman said: "I think it will depend on a number of factors.

"The first is whether he has got the finance to run a general election this autumn, certainly I think he will have it in place by next spring but there is a question over whether we will have it by the autumn.

"Secondly, how the Conservatives react. The initial signs are that they are going to do what they have done so many times over the past 10 years and that's implode and start fighting each other.

"If they do that then the Labour position in the polls will strengthen and this autumn will become more and more likely."

He continued: "I think that things are looking very hopeful at the moment. I would still not think that it's a favourite option this autumn, I would think next spring or even the following spring were more likely still.

"But it depends on events and it depends on the reaction of other political parties.

"But I certainly think these opinion polls are making it more and more likely that this autumn is coming into the frame."

Speculation about the possibility of an early election has mounted in recent weeks, fuelled by the appointment of businessman Jon Mendelsohn to raise funds for the campaign.

Mr Brown was today working from his constituency office in Scotland, having cut short his holiday in Dorset to deal with the foot-and-mouth crisis.

Downing Street sources would not be drawn on whether he plans to resume his summer vacation with his family.

Former Labour general secretary Baroness Margaret McDonagh said an early election would give Mr Brown a mandate to govern.

She told The World At One: "I think that's absolutely the case, but I think he will want to do it when there's a big political issue to be determined."

Baroness McDonagh added: "I think if this keeps getting hyped-up the country might get to a point where they say 'actually, we want this decided, we want it to be over, we want to move on'."

She added: "Sometimes these things do become self-fulfilling prophecies."