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The map that reveals how long you will have to wait until your house price recovers
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05 September 2008
House prices could take until 2016 to rebound to the levels they reached at their peak last year, researchers say.
The findings by Savills will depress Britons who bought houses recently and face living in negative equity for up to eight years.
As their mortgages will be bigger than the value of their homes, they will be trapped in properties they cannot afford to sell.
The map shows how long it will take different areas of the country to recover from the economic downturn
A separate report found one in ten homeowners could be in negative equity by next year.
Research by the Sanford Bernstein bank found house prices could plunge as much as 35 per cent from last summer's peak.
A drop of that magnitude would saddle 1.3million households - or 11 per cent of the total - with mortgages worth more than the price of their home.
The prediction by Savills was less severe, with the estate agents predicting a fall of 25 per cent by the end of 2009 from last year's peak.
It believes prices will eventually recover, but the timing will depend on where you live.
In the South-East and Scotland, prices are predicted to return to their peak 2007 levels in 2012. The South-West, London, the East of England and East Midlands will make it in 2013, the West Midlands in 2014 and Wales, the North-West and Yorkshire in 2015.
Other parts of the country will face a much longer wait, with owners in the North-East and Northern Ireland not seeing a recovery until 2016.
Yolande Barnes, director of residential research at Savills, said: 'The nature of the recovery will be very different across the country.'
This was due to a number of different factors, she said, such as employment in the different regions, the level of salaries and confidence about the economy.
She blamed the downturn on 'the lack of mortgage finance', with buyers unable to get a cheap loan - particularly young people without a deposit.
On a more positive note, Miss Barnes said that the current crisis will be 'all forgotten by 2020' with prices soaring again.
Overall, Savills expects average house prices to be nearly 50 per cent higher than last year's peak by 2020 - at an average of £323,240. This is more than £100,000 higher than they were in 2007 when the average price was £220,000.
The prediction will come as a relief to those who had begun to fear that a recovery might never happen after the recent barrage of bad news.
Figures published this week by the banking giant Halifax showed that prices are falling at the fastest rate since the Great Depression, down 12.7 per cent since August last year.
The prediction that prices will keep on falling until the end of 2009 will encourage more people to steer clear of the housing market in the next few months.
Official figures from HM Revenue & Customs showed the number of people buying a home has collapsed.
Despite the announcement of a temporary stamp duty holiday on homes bought for less than £175,000, many would save more money if they waited to buy.
A home bought after the duty suspension ends in a year could turn out to be cheaper than a home bought today with no stamp duty bill.
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