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To say the euro is under threat from Greece's domestic strife is absurd
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11 February 2010
Over the years its citizens have raised tax avoidance to the level of an art form while its governments have pursued social programmes which cost more than the country could afford, bridging the gap by borrowing, and concealing the borrowing by cooking the books. That is why things were allowed to get so far.
In fact by modern standards Greece does not need that much money. A loan of 20 billion would do the trick — which is significantly less than we in Britain had to put into either Lloyds or Royal Bank of Scotland. Bailing out countries is a lot cheaper than bailing out banks, so the idea that the euro is under threat from Greece's domestic problems is absurd.
After all, in the United States individual cities and states go bankrupt and default on their debts on a fairly regular basis — California doing so quite recently — but no one says it will destroy the dollar. And California is a bigger economy than Greece.
The Greek problem is simply that no one wants to lend to it until they see it mend its ways and while its government talks tough, lenders point to the strikes and civil unrest and question whether its leaders can deliver the necessary cuts. So they don't want their money to simply go down the unreformed plughole.
But at the same time, while there is no reason why Greece should not default, other states want to avoid this because it will make lenders think twice about lending to all governments — so-called "contagion".
We all need to be able to borrow, the UK as much as anyone, so we have an interest in maintaining the credibility of governments as a breed. That's why Greece was reluctant to call in the IMF. It is humiliating to admit that it can no longer sort out its own problems.
Meanwhile we can ignore scare stories put about by Eurosceptics that Britain has had to ride to the rescue. As the eurozone is providing a loan, that is nothing to do with us. Even if the International Monetary Fund had stepped in, then the money comes from its members — well over 100 countries, of which we are just one. The IMF recently topped up its reserves precisely in anticipation of an increased demand for its assistance as the global crisis grinds on, making this not really an economic problem but a political one.
Greece is neither the first — witness Iceland and Ireland — and is equally unlikely to be the last country to be caught out living beyond its means.
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