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Today's men of 23 can expect to live until they are 91
25 November 2007
They will be likely to live to the age of 91 on average, while many can expect to reach 97 or more, say researchers.
While these figures are good news for today's 23-year-olds intending to spend more time on the golf course in later life, they are deeply worrying for pension experts.
They warn that the improved mortality rate could cost the Government and private companies an extra £160,300 per person.
It would also have worrying cost implications for the Health Service, which is already struggling to cope with increasing numbers of elderly patients.
Although the research so far applies only to men, it seems certain that women, who already live around five years longer on average, will also have more time on their hands.
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Looking forward to another 68 years, as Prince Harry turned 23 in September
At present, the average predicted mortality age for men by 2050 is 85. But that, according to the survey, could be a gross underestimate.
The predictions have been formulated by Professor David Blake, of Cass Business School, City University, London, and colleagues at Heriot- Watt University, Edinburgh, and the Nottingham University Business School.
They say that the increased life expectancy would have "catastrophic" implications for retirement in the future if the Government and private firms delay in tackling the alreadyworrying pension deficit crisis.
Using Government figures, which estimate that a single male pensioner receives an challenge for long-term health care providers and intensifies the problems faced by both the Government and the pensions industry.
"Providers need urgently to update the projection models they use before the pensions deficits reach catastrophic proportions."
The new model for life expectancy has so far been applied only to male mortality data for England and Wales, but will soon be extended to take into account data on women.
Millions of Britons are already suffering poverty in old age because of shortcomings in the state pension and a lack of confidence in private schemes.
The present basic state pension of £87.30 per week is the lowest in the EU and is equivalent to a mere 17 per cent of the average wage.
This, coupled with a lack of trust in private schemes following a spate of banking scandals and crises, has already forced many to cut back on essentials and retire later.
The research also revealed that some 57 per cent of Britons aged between 55 and 64 are still in paid employment, while the average age of retirement in Britain – 62.6 - is also above the EU average of 61.
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